Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Wisconsin✈ 613 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Penn State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Penn State wins
Strong
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Penn State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wisconsin 2026 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/6 | Wisconsin vs Notre Dame | +16.5 | 46.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Wisconsin vs Western Illinois | -21.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Wisconsin at Penn State | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Wisconsin vs Michigan State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Wisconsin at UCLA | +10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Wisconsin vs USC | +16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Wisconsin vs Rutgers | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Wisconsin at Maryland | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Wisconsin at Purdue | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
Penn State 2026 Schedule
Penn State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Penn State vs Marshall | -19.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Penn State at Temple | -15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Penn State vs Buffalo | -25 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Penn State vs Wisconsin | -18 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/2 | Penn State at Northwestern | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Penn State vs USC | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Penn State at Michigan | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Penn State vs Purdue | -21 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Penn State at Washington | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Penn State vs Minnesota | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Penn State vs Rutgers | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Penn State at Maryland | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +28.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #104
17–21 (45%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jeff Grimes
Yr 2
#131
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 3
#22
Penn State
Matt Campbell #28
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Taylor Mouser
Yr 1
#43
DC
D’Anton Lynn
Yr 1
#28
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓