Sat, Sep 12 2026
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Ross-Ade Stadium
West Lafayette, IN
·
Turf
·
57,236 cap
Wake Forest✈ 467 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wake Forest
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wake Forest 2026 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Wake Forest vs Akron | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Wake Forest at Purdue | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/18 | Wake Forest vs Miami | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Wake Forest at Louisville | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Wake Forest vs Stanford | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Wake Forest at NC State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Wake Forest at California | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Wake Forest vs Virginia | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Wake Forest vs Merrimack | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Wake Forest at SMU | +12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Wake Forest at Georgia Tech | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Wake Forest vs Duke | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Purdue 2026 Schedule
Purdue's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Purdue vs Indiana State | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Purdue vs Wake Forest | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Purdue at UCLA | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Purdue vs Notre Dame | +28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Purdue at Illinois | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Purdue vs Minnesota | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Purdue vs Washington | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Purdue at Penn State | +21 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Purdue vs Maryland | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Purdue at Iowa | +23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Purdue vs Wisconsin | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Purdue at Indiana | +31.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wake Forest
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wake Forest
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +30.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Wake Forest
Jake Dickert #40
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 2
#53
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 2
#51
Purdue
Barry Odom #57
2–10 (17%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Josh Henson
Yr 2
#62
DC
Kevin Kane
Yr 2
#134
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓