Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Georgia,
while Game Control favors Kentucky.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -14.5
O/U 47.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Georgia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Kentucky vs Ball State | -25.0W44–14 | 49.0 | W44–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky | -35.0W28–17 | 62.5 | W28–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Kentucky vs Akron | -25.0W35–3 | 48.5 | W35–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Kentucky at Vanderbilt | -13.5W45–28 | 50.0 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Kentucky vs Florida | -1.0W33–14 | 44.0 | W33–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Kentucky at Georgia | +14.5L13–51 | 47.0 | L13–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Kentucky vs Missouri | -1.5L21–38 | 50.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Kentucky vs Tennessee | +4.0L27–33 | 50.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Kentucky at Mississippi State | -5.5W24–3 | 44.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Kentucky vs Alabama | +10.0L21–49 | 45.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Kentucky at South Carolina | +2.5L14–17 | 52.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Kentucky at Louisville | +7.5W38–31 | 47.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/29 | Kentucky vs Clemson | +3.5L35–38 | 44.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
Georgia 2023 Schedule
Georgia's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Georgia vs UT Martin | -50.0W48–7 | 56.5 | W48–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia vs Ball State | -42.0W45–3 | 52.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia vs South Carolina | -27.0W24–14 | 54.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Georgia vs UAB | -40.0W49–21 | 56.0 | W49–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia at Auburn | -14.0W27–20 | 44.5 | W27–20 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Georgia vs Kentucky | -14.5W51–13 | 47.0 | W51–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia at Vanderbilt | -32.5W37–20 | 55.0 | W37–20 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.0W43–20 | 50.0 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia vs Missouri | -15.0W30–21 | 56.5 | W30–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia vs Ole Miss | -11.0W52–17 | 59.0 | W52–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia at Tennessee | -9.0W38–10 | 59.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia at Georgia Tech | -23.0W31–23 | 59.5 | W31–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Georgia vs Alabama | -5.0L24–27 | 56.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Georgia vs Florida State | -23.5W63–3 | 47.0 | W63–3 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Georgia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Georgia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kentucky Edge
Kentucky +12.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia
91.8 — 4.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 38
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
69–59 (54%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Liam Coen
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 3
#1
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
84–15 (85%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Muschamp
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓