Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Georgia wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Georgia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -5
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia 2023 Schedule
Georgia's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Georgia vs UT Martin | -50.0W48–7 | 56.5 | W48–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Georgia vs Ball State | -42.0W45–3 | 52.5 | W45–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Georgia vs South Carolina | -27.0W24–14 | 54.5 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Georgia vs UAB | -40.0W49–21 | 56.0 | W49–21 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Georgia at Auburn | -14.0W27–20 | 44.5 | W27–20 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Georgia vs Kentucky | -14.5W51–13 | 47.0 | W51–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Georgia at Vanderbilt | -32.5W37–20 | 55.0 | W37–20 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.0W43–20 | 50.0 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Georgia vs Missouri | -15.0W30–21 | 56.5 | W30–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Georgia vs Ole Miss | -11.0W52–17 | 59.0 | W52–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Georgia at Tennessee | -9.0W38–10 | 59.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Georgia at Georgia Tech | -23.0W31–23 | 59.5 | W31–23 | U | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Georgia vs Alabama | -5.0L24–27 | 56.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 12/30 | Georgia vs Florida State | -23.5W63–3 | 47.0 | W63–3 | O | Y |
Alabama 2023 Schedule
Alabama's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Alabama vs Middle Tennessee | -39.5W56–7 | 52.0 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Alabama vs Texas | -7.0L24–34 | 53.0 | L24–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Alabama at South Florida | -34.0W17–3 | 61.0 | W17–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Alabama vs Ole Miss | -7.0W24–10 | 56.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Alabama at Mississippi State | -16.5W40–17 | 45.0 | W40–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Alabama at Texas A&M | -2.5W26–20 | 45.0 | W26–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Alabama vs Arkansas | -19.0W24–21 | 45.0 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Alabama vs Tennessee | -8.5W34–20 | 47.5 | W34–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Alabama vs LSU | -3.0W42–28 | 61.5 | W42–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Alabama at Kentucky | -10.0W49–21 | 45.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Alabama vs Chattanooga | -44.5W66–10 | 54.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Alabama at Auburn | -14.0W27–24 | 48.0 | W27–24 | O | N |
| Sat 12/2 | Alabama vs Georgia | +5.0W27–24 | 56.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Alabama vs Michigan | +2.0L20–27 | 46.0 | L20–27 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +1.18
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +10.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Alabama
57.8 — 21.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Alabama won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
84–15 (85%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Bobo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Muschamp
Yr 2
#1
Alabama
Nick Saban #1
191–28 (87%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Tommy Rees
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Steele
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓