Sat, Sep 23 2023
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Champaign, IL
·
Turf
·
60,670 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 1,057 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Illinois,
while Game Control favors Florida Atlantic.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Florida Atlantic wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Illinois -16
O/U 45.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Illinois
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2023 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Florida Atlantic vs Monmouth | -26.5W42–20 | 56.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida Atlantic vs Ohio | -3.5L10–17 | 61.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida Atlantic at Clemson | +25.0L14–48 | 51.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida Atlantic at Illinois | +16.0L17–23 | 45.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa | -3.0W20–17 | 54.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Florida Atlantic at South Florida | +3.0W56–14 | 61.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Florida Atlantic vs UTSA | +2.5L10–36 | 58.5 | L10–36 | U | N |
| Fri 10/27 | Florida Atlantic at Charlotte | -3.5W38–16 | 45.5 | W38–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Florida Atlantic at UAB | +1.0L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina | -7.5L7–22 | 44.5 | L7–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida Atlantic vs Tulane | +9.5L8–24 | 46.5 | L8–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida Atlantic at Rice | +5.0L21–24 | 46.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Illinois 2023 Schedule
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Illinois vs Toledo | -7.0W30–28 | 45.5 | W30–28 | O | N |
| Fri 9/8 | Illinois at Kansas | +3.5L23–34 | 57.5 | L23–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Illinois vs Penn State | +14.0L13–30 | 47.5 | L13–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Illinois vs Florida Atlantic | -16.0W23–17 | 45.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Illinois at Purdue | +1.0L19–44 | 54.0 | L19–44 | O | N |
| Fri 10/6 | Illinois vs Nebraska | -3.5L7–20 | 43.0 | L7–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Illinois at Maryland | +13.5W27–24 | 52.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Illinois vs Wisconsin | +3.0L21–25 | 40.5 | L21–25 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Illinois at Minnesota | +1.5W27–26 | 43.0 | W27–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Illinois vs Indiana | -4.5W48–45 | 43.5 | W48–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Illinois at Iowa | +2.5L13–15 | 33.5 | L13–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Illinois vs Northwestern | -5.0L43–45 | 46.5 | L43–45 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Illinois
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Illinois Edge
Illinois +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Atlantic Edge
Florida Atlantic +13.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Illinois
45.1 — 31.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Illinois won by 6
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Tom Herman #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Charlie Frye
Yr 1
#1
DC
Roc Bellantoni
Yr 1
#1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
14–14 (50%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 2
#1
DC
Aaron Henry
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓