Sat, Sep 2 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Monmouth✈ 1,022 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Florida Atlantic wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -26.5
O/U 56.0
Caesars Sportsbook (Colorado)
Monmouth 2023 Schedule
Monmouth's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Monmouth at Florida Atlantic | +26.5L20–42 | 56.0 | L20–42 | O | Y |
Florida Atlantic 2023 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Florida Atlantic vs Monmouth | -26.5W42–20 | 56.0 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida Atlantic vs Ohio | -3.5L10–17 | 61.5 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida Atlantic at Clemson | +25.0L14–48 | 51.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida Atlantic at Illinois | +16.0L17–23 | 45.5 | L17–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa | -3.0W20–17 | 54.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Florida Atlantic at South Florida | +3.0W56–14 | 61.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Florida Atlantic vs UTSA | +2.5L10–36 | 58.5 | L10–36 | U | N |
| Fri 10/27 | Florida Atlantic at Charlotte | -3.5W38–16 | 45.5 | W38–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Florida Atlantic at UAB | +1.0L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Florida Atlantic vs East Carolina | -7.5L7–22 | 44.5 | L7–22 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida Atlantic vs Tulane | +9.5L8–24 | 46.5 | L8–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida Atlantic at Rice | +5.0L21–24 | 46.5 | L21–24 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Monmouth Edge
Monmouth +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Atlantic Edge
Florida Atlantic +41.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓