Sun, Oct 30 2022
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium
El Paso, TX
·
Turf
·
51,500 cap
Middle Tennessee✈ 1,187 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Middle Tennessee
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Middle Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Middle Tennessee wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UTEP -2.5
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Middle Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Middle Tennessee 2022 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Middle Tennessee at James Madison | +4.5L7–44 | 60.5 | L7–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Middle Tennessee at Colorado State | +13.5W34–19 | 58.0 | W34–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee State | -19.5W49–6 | 52.5 | W49–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Middle Tennessee at Miami | +25.5W45–31 | 53.5 | W45–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | Middle Tennessee vs UTSA | +4.5L30–45 | 64.0 | L30–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Middle Tennessee at UAB | +10.0L14–41 | 53.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | +7.5L17–35 | 67.5 | L17–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Middle Tennessee at UTEP | +2.5W24–13 | 52.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | -2.5L24–40 | 64.0 | L24–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Middle Tennessee vs Charlotte | -10.0W24–14 | 67.0 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida Atlantic | +5.5W49–21 | 51.0 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Middle Tennessee at Florida International | -19.5W33–28 | 54.5 | W33–28 | O | N |
| Sat 12/24 | Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State | +7.0W25–23 | 47.0 | W25–23 | O | Y |
UTEP 2022 Schedule
UTEP's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UTEP vs North Texas | +1.5L13–31 | 52.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/3 | UTEP at Oklahoma | +31.0L13–45 | 58.0 | L13–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | UTEP vs New Mexico State | -17.0W20–13 | 46.5 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UTEP at New Mexico | -2.0L10–27 | 38.0 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | UTEP vs Boise State | +16.0W27–10 | 44.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | UTEP at Charlotte | -3.5W41–35 | 56.0 | W41–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | UTEP at Louisiana Tech | +2.0L31–41 | 52.0 | L31–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | UTEP vs Florida Atlantic | +3.0W24–21 | 50.5 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | UTEP vs Middle Tennessee | -2.5L13–24 | 52.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Thu 11/3 | UTEP at Rice | +3.5L30–37 | 47.0 | L30–37 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/19 | UTEP vs Florida International | -14.0W40–6 | 50.0 | W40–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | UTEP at UTSA | +16.5L31–34 | 56.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Middle Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Middle Tennessee Edge
Middle Tennessee +8.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Middle Tennessee
Rick Stockstill #1
101–98 (51%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Mitch Stewart
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scott Shafer
Yr 2
#1
UTEP
Dana Dimel #1
12–33 (27%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Dave Warner
Yr 2
#1
DC
Bradley Dale Peveto
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓