Sat, Sep 17 2022
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Week 3
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🏟 Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Murfreesboro, TN
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Turf
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31,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Middle Tennessee -19.5
O/U 52.5
consensus
Tennessee State 2022 Schedule
Tennessee State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | Tennessee State at Middle Tennessee | +19.5L6–49 | 52.5 | L6–49 | O | N |
Middle Tennessee 2022 Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Middle Tennessee at James Madison | +4.5L7–44 | 60.5 | L7–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Middle Tennessee at Colorado State | +13.5W34–19 | 58.0 | W34–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Middle Tennessee vs Tennessee State | -19.5W49–6 | 52.5 | W49–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Middle Tennessee at Miami | +25.5W45–31 | 53.5 | W45–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | Middle Tennessee vs UTSA | +4.5L30–45 | 64.0 | L30–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Middle Tennessee at UAB | +10.0L14–41 | 53.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky | +7.5L17–35 | 67.5 | L17–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Middle Tennessee at UTEP | +2.5W24–13 | 52.0 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Middle Tennessee at Louisiana Tech | -2.5L24–40 | 64.0 | L24–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Middle Tennessee vs Charlotte | -10.0W24–14 | 67.0 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida Atlantic | +5.5W49–21 | 51.0 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Middle Tennessee at Florida International | -19.5W33–28 | 54.5 | W33–28 | O | N |
| Sat 12/24 | Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State | +7.0W25–23 | 47.0 | W25–23 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee State Edge
Tennessee State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee State Edge
Tennessee State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Middle Tennessee
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Middle Tennessee
95.0 — 1.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Middle Tennessee won by 43
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Middle Tennessee, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓