Sat, Aug 27 2022
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Week 1
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🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Bowling Green, KY
·
Turf
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22,113 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -32.5
O/U 72.0
consensus
Austin Peay 2022 Schedule
Austin Peay's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Austin Peay at Western Kentucky | +32.5L27–38 | 72.0 | L27–38 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/19 | Austin Peay at Alabama | +45.0L0–34 | 58.0 | L0–34 | U | Y |
Western Kentucky 2022 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Western Kentucky vs Austin Peay | -32.5W38–27 | 72.0 | W38–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/3 | Western Kentucky at Hawai'i | -16.5W49–17 | 67.5 | W49–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | Western Kentucky at Indiana | +7.0L30–33 | 61.0 | L30–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Western Kentucky vs Florida International | -31.0W73–0 | 65.0 | W73–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Western Kentucky vs Troy | -5.0L27–34 | 55.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Western Kentucky at UTSA | +6.5L28–31 | 72.5 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee | -7.5W35–17 | 67.5 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/21 | Western Kentucky vs UAB | -1.5W20–17 | 60.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Western Kentucky vs North Texas | -10.0L13–40 | 70.0 | L13–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Western Kentucky at Charlotte | -14.5W59–7 | 72.5 | W59–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Western Kentucky vs Rice | -13.5W45–10 | 61.0 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Western Kentucky at Auburn | +5.0L17–41 | 54.0 | L17–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic | -7.5W32–31 | 62.5 | W32–31 | O | N |
| Wed 12/21 | Western Kentucky vs South Alabama | +4.0W44–23 | 58.0 | W44–23 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Austin Peay Edge
Austin Peay +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Austin Peay Edge
Austin Peay +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
90.3 — 2.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 11
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓