Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Nicholls✈ 748 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
South Alabama wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -13.5
O/U 53.0
consensus
Nicholls 2022 Schedule
Nicholls's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Nicholls at South Alabama | +13.5L7–48 | 53.0 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Nicholls at UL Monroe | +4.5L7–35 | 58.5 | L7–35 | U | N |
South Alabama 2022 Schedule
South Alabama's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | South Alabama vs Nicholls | -13.5W48–7 | 53.0 | W48–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | South Alabama at Central Michigan | +6.0W38–24 | 57.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | South Alabama at UCLA | +15.5L31–32 | 59.5 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | South Alabama vs Louisiana Tech | -13.0W38–14 | 59.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | South Alabama at Louisiana | -8.5W20–17 | 47.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -17.0W41–34 | 51.0 | W41–34 | O | N |
| Thu 10/20 | South Alabama vs Troy | -3.0L6–10 | 47.0 | L6–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -9.0W31–3 | 52.5 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | South Alabama at Georgia Southern | -3.5W38–31 | 60.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | South Alabama vs Texas State | -16.0W38–21 | 46.0 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -7.5W27–20 | 45.0 | W27–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | South Alabama vs Old Dominion | -16.5W27–20 | 47.0 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Wed 12/21 | South Alabama vs Western Kentucky | -4.0L23–44 | 58.0 | L23–44 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nicholls Edge
Nicholls +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +36.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓