East Carolina at BYU Week 9 College Football Matchup East Carolina at BYU Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 29 2022 · Week 9 · 🏟 LaVell Edwards Stadium Provo, UT · Turf · 63,725 cap
East Carolina✈ 1,884 mi-2 hr TZ
27 24
Final
BYU
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
East Carolina
30
ECU +3
BYU
31
P&R Line East Carolina -0
P&R Total O/U 62.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas BYU -3.0 · O/U 64.0
Matchup Prediction
East Carolina has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor East Carolina entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
BYU -3.0
O/U 64.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2022 Schedule
East Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3East Carolina vs NC State+12.5L20–2152.0L20–21UY
Sat 9/10East Carolina vs Old Dominion-13.0W39–2149.5W39–21OY
Sat 9/17East Carolina vs Campbell-32.5W49–1058.0W49–10OY
Sat 9/24East Carolina vs Navy-16.5L20–2348.5L20–23UN
Sat 10/1East Carolina vs South Florida-10.0W48–2855.5W48–28OY
Sat 10/8East Carolina at Tulane+2.5L9–2456.0L9–24UN
Sat 10/15East Carolina vs Memphis-5.5W47–4562.5W47–45ON
Sat 10/22East Carolina vs UCF+5.5W34–1363.0W34–13UY
Fri 10/28East Carolina at BYU+3.0W27–2464.0W27–24UY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/11East Carolina at Cincinnati+4.5L25–2751.5L25–27OY
Sat 11/19East Carolina vs Houston-6.0L3–4266.5L3–42UN
Sat 11/26East Carolina at Temple-9.5W49–4652.0W49–46ON
Tue 12/27East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina-7.0W53–2967.5W53–29OY
BYU 2022 Schedule
BYU's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3BYU at South Florida-11.0W50–2158.5W50–21OY
Sat 9/10BYU vs Baylor-2.5W26–2054.5W26–20UY
Sat 9/17BYU at Oregon+3.5L20–4158.0L20–41ON
Sat 9/24BYU vs Wyoming-21.5W38–2450.0W38–24ON
Thu 9/29BYU vs Utah State-26.0W38–2660.0W38–26ON
Sat 10/8BYU vs Notre Dame+4.0L20–2851.0L20–28UN
Sat 10/15BYU vs Arkansas-1.0L35–5266.5L35–52ON
Sat 10/22BYU at Liberty-7.0L14–4158.0L14–41UN
Fri 10/28BYU vs East Carolina-3.0L24–2764.0L24–27UN
Sat 11/5BYU at Boise State+9.5W31–2854.5W31–28OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/19BYU vs Utah Tech-23
Sat 11/26BYU at Stanford-6.0W35–2657.5W35–26OY
Sat 12/17BYU vs SMU+4.5W24–2365.0W24–23UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
BYU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
East Carolina
+0.531
BYU
+0.543
BYU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina
+0.661
BYU
+0.791
BYU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
East Carolina
0.175
BYU
0.129
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
East Carolina Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
East Carolina
+8.496
BYU
+8.474
East Carolina Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
East Carolina
+0.933
BYU
+0.907
East Carolina Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
East Carolina
70.0
BYU
72.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
East Carolina Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
BYU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
East Carolina
1.4
BYU
14.5
Offense Rating
East Carolina
15.8
BYU
21.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
East Carolina
14.3
BYU
7.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? East Carolina Edge
Avg sequences created per game
East Carolina #61
1.50
BYU #71
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #20
0.63
BYU #92
1.63
East Carolina +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? East Carolina Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
East Carolina #1
55.2
BYU #1
45.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
East Carolina #53
28.0
BYU #57
39.8
East Carolina +10.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on East Carolina. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
14–19 (42%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Donnie Kirkpatrick Yr 2 #1
DC Blake Harrell Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
BYU
Kalani Sitake #1
48–29 (62%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Aaron Roderick Yr 2 #1
DC Ilaisa Tuiaki Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself