Sat, Nov 12 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
East Carolina✈ 462 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors East Carolina,
while Game Control favors Cincinnati.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
East Carolina wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Cincinnati wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Cincinnati -4.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Cincinnati
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2022 Schedule
East Carolina's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | East Carolina vs NC State | +12.5L20–21 | 52.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | East Carolina vs Old Dominion | -13.0W39–21 | 49.5 | W39–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | East Carolina vs Campbell | -32.5W49–10 | 58.0 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | East Carolina vs Navy | -16.5L20–23 | 48.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | East Carolina vs South Florida | -10.0W48–28 | 55.5 | W48–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | East Carolina at Tulane | +2.5L9–24 | 56.0 | L9–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | East Carolina vs Memphis | -5.5W47–45 | 62.5 | W47–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | East Carolina vs UCF | +5.5W34–13 | 63.0 | W34–13 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/28 | East Carolina at BYU | +3.0W27–24 | 64.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/11 | East Carolina at Cincinnati | +4.5L25–27 | 51.5 | L25–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | East Carolina vs Houston | -6.0L3–42 | 66.5 | L3–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | East Carolina at Temple | -9.5W49–46 | 52.0 | W49–46 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | East Carolina vs Coastal Carolina | -7.0W53–29 | 67.5 | W53–29 | O | Y |
Cincinnati 2022 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Cincinnati at Arkansas | +6.5L24–31 | 54.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Cincinnati vs Kennesaw State | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/17 | Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) | -24.0W38–17 | 51.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Cincinnati vs Indiana | -16.5W45–24 | 57.0 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Cincinnati at Tulsa | -10.0W31–21 | 59.0 | W31–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Cincinnati vs South Florida | -27.0W28–24 | 58.5 | W28–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Cincinnati at SMU | -3.5W29–27 | 59.5 | W29–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Cincinnati at UCF | +1.5L21–25 | 55.5 | L21–25 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Cincinnati vs Navy | -18.5W20–10 | 43.5 | W20–10 | U | N |
| Fri 11/11 | Cincinnati vs East Carolina | -4.5W27–25 | 51.5 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Cincinnati at Temple | -17.0W23–3 | 48.5 | W23–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Cincinnati vs Tulane | +1.0L24–27 | 44.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Cincinnati vs Louisville | +2.5L7–24 | 38.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Cincinnati
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Cincinnati
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +19.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Cincinnati
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Cincinnati
64.2 — 16.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Cincinnati won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Mike Houston #1
14–19 (42%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Donnie Kirkpatrick
Yr 2
#1
DC
Blake Harrell
Yr 2
#1
Cincinnati
Luke Fickell #1
48–15 (76%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Gino Guidugli
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓