Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
·
Turf
·
65,857 cap
BYU✈ 1,859 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
BYU -11
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → BYU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
BYU 2022 Schedule
BYU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | BYU at South Florida | -11.0W50–21 | 58.5 | W50–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | BYU vs Baylor | -2.5W26–20 | 54.5 | W26–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | BYU at Oregon | +3.5L20–41 | 58.0 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | BYU vs Wyoming | -21.5W38–24 | 50.0 | W38–24 | O | N |
| Thu 9/29 | BYU vs Utah State | -26.0W38–26 | 60.0 | W38–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | BYU vs Notre Dame | +4.0L20–28 | 51.0 | L20–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | BYU vs Arkansas | -1.0L35–52 | 66.5 | L35–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | BYU at Liberty | -7.0L14–41 | 58.0 | L14–41 | U | N |
| Fri 10/28 | BYU vs East Carolina | -3.0L24–27 | 64.0 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | BYU at Boise State | +9.5W31–28 | 54.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/19 | BYU vs Utah Tech | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/26 | BYU at Stanford | -6.0W35–26 | 57.5 | W35–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | BYU vs SMU | +4.5W24–23 | 65.0 | W24–23 | U | Y |
South Florida 2022 Schedule
South Florida's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | South Florida vs BYU | +11.0L21–50 | 58.5 | L21–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | South Florida vs Howard | -39.5W42–20 | 61.5 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | South Florida at Florida | +23.5L28–31 | 58.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | South Florida at Louisville | +15.5L3–41 | 63.5 | L3–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | South Florida vs East Carolina | +10.0L28–48 | 55.5 | L28–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | South Florida at Cincinnati | +27.0L24–28 | 58.5 | L24–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | South Florida vs Tulane | +12.0L31–45 | 55.0 | L31–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | South Florida at Houston | +17.0L27–42 | 59.0 | L27–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | South Florida at Temple | -3.5L28–54 | 49.0 | L28–54 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | South Florida vs SMU | +17.5L23–41 | 72.5 | L23–41 | U | N |
| Fri 11/18 | South Florida at Tulsa | +14.0L42–48 | 57.5 | L42–48 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | South Florida vs UCF | +20.0L39–46 | 67.5 | L39–46 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ BYU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
BYU Edge
BYU +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
BYU Edge
BYU +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
BYU
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
BYU
0.8 — 99.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
BYU won by 29
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Florida, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
BYU
Kalani Sitake #1
48–29 (62%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Aaron Roderick
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ilaisa Tuiaki
Yr 2
#1
South Florida
Bob Shoop #1
3–18 (14%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Travis Trickett
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bob Shoop
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓