Sat, Nov 26 2022
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Florida✈ 129 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Florida State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida State -10
O/U 58.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida 2022 Schedule
Florida's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Florida vs Utah | +2.5W29–26 | 52.0 | W29–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Florida vs Kentucky | -6.0L16–26 | 53.0 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Florida vs South Florida | -23.5W31–28 | 58.0 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Florida at Tennessee | +11.0L33–38 | 62.0 | L33–38 | O | Y |
| Sun 10/2 | Florida vs Eastern Washington | -32.0W52–17 | 71.5 | W52–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Florida vs Missouri | -11.0W24–17 | 53.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Florida vs LSU | -2.0L35–45 | 51.5 | L35–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Florida vs Georgia | +23.0L20–42 | 56.5 | L20–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Florida at Texas A&M | +1.5W41–24 | 53.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Florida vs South Carolina | -8.0W38–6 | 58.0 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Florida at Vanderbilt | -14.0L24–31 | 58.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Florida at Florida State | +10.0L38–45 | 58.5 | L38–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Florida vs Oregon State | +7.5L3–30 | 52.0 | L3–30 | U | N |
Florida State 2022 Schedule
Florida State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Florida State vs Duquesne | -42.0W47–7 | 57.0 | W47–7 | U | N |
| Sun 9/4 | Florida State vs LSU | +4.5W24–23 | 51.0 | W24–23 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/16 | Florida State at Louisville | -2.5W35–31 | 57.0 | W35–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Florida State vs Boston College | -18.5W44–14 | 48.5 | W44–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Florida State vs Wake Forest | -6.0L21–31 | 67.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Florida State at NC State | +3.5L17–19 | 50.5 | L17–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Florida State vs Clemson | +4.5L28–34 | 51.0 | L28–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Florida State vs Georgia Tech | -23.5W41–16 | 48.0 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Florida State at Miami | -6.5W45–3 | 54.0 | W45–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Florida State at Syracuse | -7.5W38–3 | 51.0 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Florida State vs Louisiana | -25.0W49–17 | 52.5 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Florida State vs Florida | -10.0W45–38 | 58.5 | W45–38 | O | N |
| Thu 12/29 | Florida State vs Oklahoma | -10.5W35–32 | 67.0 | W35–32 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +15.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida State
57.1 — 15.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida State won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida
Billy Napier #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Sale
Yr 1
#1
DC
Patrick Toney
Yr 1
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
8–13 (38%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 1
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓