Matchup Prediction
Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Florida wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas A&M -1.5
O/U 53.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Florida 2022 Schedule
Florida's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Florida vs Utah | +2.5W29–26 | 52.0 | W29–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Florida vs Kentucky | -6.0L16–26 | 53.0 | L16–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Florida vs South Florida | -23.5W31–28 | 58.0 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Florida at Tennessee | +11.0L33–38 | 62.0 | L33–38 | O | Y |
| Sun 10/2 | Florida vs Eastern Washington | -32.0W52–17 | 71.5 | W52–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Florida vs Missouri | -11.0W24–17 | 53.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Florida vs LSU | -2.0L35–45 | 51.5 | L35–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Florida vs Georgia | +23.0L20–42 | 56.5 | L20–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Florida at Texas A&M | +1.5W41–24 | 53.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Florida vs South Carolina | -8.0W38–6 | 58.0 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Florida at Vanderbilt | -14.0L24–31 | 58.0 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Florida at Florida State | +10.0L38–45 | 58.5 | L38–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Florida vs Oregon State | +7.5L3–30 | 52.0 | L3–30 | U | N |
Texas A&M 2022 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Texas A&M vs Sam Houston | -36.5W31–0 | 54.0 | W31–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Texas A&M vs App State | -18.0L14–17 | 54.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Texas A&M vs Miami | -6.5W17–9 | 45.5 | W17–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | -1.5W23–21 | 51.0 | W23–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Texas A&M at Mississippi State | +4.0L24–42 | 45.0 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Texas A&M at Alabama | +24.0L20–24 | 48.0 | L20–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Texas A&M at South Carolina | -3.0L24–30 | 44.5 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Texas A&M vs Ole Miss | +3.0L28–31 | 55.5 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Texas A&M vs Florida | -1.5L24–41 | 53.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Texas A&M at Auburn | +1.5L10–13 | 48.0 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Texas A&M vs Massachusetts | -32.0W20–3 | 46.0 | W20–3 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Texas A&M vs LSU | +10.0W38–23 | 47.5 | W38–23 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Edge
Florida +0.23
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +6.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida
Billy Napier #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Sale
Yr 1
#1
DC
Patrick Toney
Yr 1
#1
Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher #1
34–14 (71%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Darrell Dickey
Yr 2
#1
DC
D. J. Durkin
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓