Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
BYU -13.5
O/U 54.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → BYU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
BYU 2021 Schedule
BYU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | BYU vs Arizona | -13.5W24–16 | 54.0 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | BYU vs Utah | +7.0W26–17 | 50.0 | W26–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | BYU vs Arizona State | +3.5W27–17 | 50.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | BYU vs South Florida | -23.5W35–27 | 54.5 | W35–27 | O | N |
| Fri 10/1 | BYU at Utah State | -9.0W34–20 | 66.0 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | BYU vs Boise State | -6.0L17–26 | 58.0 | L17–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | BYU at Baylor | +5.5L24–38 | 52.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | BYU at Washington State | -3.5W21–19 | 56.5 | W21–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | BYU vs Virginia | -2.5W66–49 | 66.5 | W66–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | BYU vs Idaho State | -36.5W59–14 | 55.0 | W59–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/20 | BYU at Georgia Southern | -20.0W34–17 | 57.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | BYU at USC | -8.5W35–31 | 65.5 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 12/18 | BYU vs UAB | -7.0L28–31 | 54.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
Arizona 2021 Schedule
Arizona's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Arizona vs BYU | +13.5L16–24 | 54.0 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Arizona vs San Diego State | -1.5L14–38 | 46.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Arizona vs Northern Arizona | -26.5L19–21 | 53.5 | L19–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Arizona at Oregon | +29.5L19–41 | 58.5 | L19–41 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | Arizona vs UCLA | +16.0L16–34 | 60.0 | L16–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Arizona at Colorado | +6.0L0–34 | 46.5 | L0–34 | U | N |
| Fri 10/22 | Arizona vs Washington | +17.5L16–21 | 45.5 | L16–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Arizona at USC | +22.0L34–41 | 55.5 | L34–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Arizona vs California | +7.0W10–3 | 47.0 | W10–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Arizona vs Utah | +24.0L29–38 | 54.5 | L29–38 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Arizona at Washington State | +15.0L18–44 | 52.5 | L18–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Arizona at Arizona State | +20.0L15–38 | 52.5 | L15–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ BYU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
BYU Edge
BYU +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
BYU Edge
BYU +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arizona, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
BYU
Kalani Sitake #1
41–26 (61%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Aaron Roderick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ilaisa Tuiaki
Yr 1
#1
Arizona
Jedd Fisch #1
0–3 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 1
#1
DC
Don Brown
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓