Buffalo at Florida International - 2026 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Golden Panthers

Florida International logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Pitbull Stadium - Miami, FL

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Florida International -4.5  (SP+ BUFF -3)
Projected Score: BUFF: 24 - FIU: 28 (52)
FIU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BUFF Travel: 1195 miles
Golden Panthers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Simmons (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1.4 - 1.6 (#116)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-14.5————
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+4.5————
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+25————
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-14.5————
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+3.5————
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+15.5————
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-25.5————
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-4.5————
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+10.5————
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-10.5————
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan-0————
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Florida International's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Florida International at South Florida+16.5————
Sat 9/12Florida International vs Buffalo-4.5————
Sat 9/19Florida International at Florida Atlantic+2————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida International's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
FIU#81 (.16)41% (93)28.539% (109)2.84 (83)18243% (54)2154.12 (35)#70 (.17)43% (83)3046% (109)41% (62)3.65 (67)55.51.61.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FIU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense122423.238.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07
FIU Defense13302842.6%3.651.6 - - - - - 46%51%46%41%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1223.522.639.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
FIU Offense1328.530.540.7%4.121.6213971822154.949%49%39%43%17%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Florida International1331:3720.636%49%6.555.51.61.65.32.3130.1
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)
FIU Defense1346% (21)46% (109) - - - - .12 (86)3.21 (119)75% (94)10% (70)0.94 (56)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
FIU Offense1349% (67)39% (109)37.3181.64.926 (49).15 (51)2.84 (83)74% (55)10% (74)1.19 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)
FIU Defense1351% (104)41% (62) - - - - - - 12 (31).26 (78)1.6 (99)31% (72)28% (57).29 (66)7% (32)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
FIU Offense1349% (69)43% (54)19.833215.46.510.920 (134)13 (88).21 (89)1.4 (129)33% (90)27% (101).23 (95)7% (117)1.9 (93)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.78  #117
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.34  #104
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #97
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -10.78   Florida International: -4.79

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5   Florida International: -10.5




Florida International's Power Ratings
Florida International's Power Rating: -4.79  #95
Florida International's Offense Rating: 11.68  #103
Florida International's Defense Rating: 15.75  #71
2026 Talent Rating: 572.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 125  #81
Florida International's 2026 Expected Record: 1.4 - 1.6
Florida International's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5  #108
Florida International's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #74
Florida International's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436.36
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Florida International 28
Buffalo 24

Projected Total Points: 52
Florida International Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 30 PPG
Defense at Home: 28

Florida International's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida International000 Overs
Buffalo000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#117) BUFF at (#95) FIU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFFIU
Game ControlGC #101 #89
Momentum ControlMC #55 #101
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #117 #95
SP+SP+ #97 #108
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #100 #87
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #81
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Florida International Notes
(2/10) QB JJ Khol (fmr top croot) was decent LY @ App
Florida International Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffFIU Def
Game ControlGC #106 #94
Momentum ControlMC #98 #107
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #83
ExplosiveExp #104 #78
PPAPPA #116 #70
PowerPwr #124 #71
SP+SP+ #118 #124
Pts POPPO #91 #67
HavocHav #87 #54
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffFIU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #109
Run ExplRExp #108 #56
PPAExp #128 #86
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #119
Stuff RateStuff #68 #115
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffFIU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #62
Pass ExplPExl #101 #99
PPAExp #103 #78
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #70
DB HavocDB #104 #32
Florida International on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFIU OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #78 #91
Momentum ControlMC #77 #23
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #93 #35
ExplosiveExp #36 #56
PPAPPA #81 #49
PowerPwr #103 #104
SP+SP+ #74 #70
Pts POPPO #35 #21
HavocHav #102 #75
Florida International Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
FIU OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #27
Run ExplRExp #4 #34
PPAExp #51 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #83 #79
Stuff RateStuff #121 #94
TackleTak - NR
Florida International Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatFIU OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #54 #47
Pass ExplPExl #129 #98
PPAExp #89 #61
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #74 #52
DB HavocDB #117 #95
Program Comparison
FIU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Pitbull Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224

FIU's OC Nick Coleman (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
J.J. Kohl (Tr)13321662%14651226.8
Zach Marker3838%21002.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Carrie10346954.653
Devonte Lyons3714213.835
Sterling Joseph7123217.661
J.J. Kohl (Tr)305011.732
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Greg Gaines III (Tr)651018415.746
Kyle Mcneal31310110.030
Maguire Anderson25280111.246
JoJo Stone23272211.849

View Florida International's Full Roster

FIU's DC Jovan Dewitt (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josiah Taylor717122
Shamir Sterlin623014
Wesley Miller (Tr)532001
Percy Courtney Jr.387110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kenton Simmons259782
Dante Anderson145320
Nathan Jennings (Tr)132200
Brayshawn Littlejohn (Tr)325252
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamir Sterlin623014
Websley Etienne100003
Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine171003