Bowling Green at Iowa State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Jack Trice Stadium - Ames, IA

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
BGSU 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Iowa State -16  (SP+ ISU -14)

Projected Score: BGSU: 17 - ISU: 33 (49)
ISU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
BGSU Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Cyclones (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jimmy Rogers (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 20 (32 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 2)
 
Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Bowling Green vs Tarleton State-12
Sat 9/12Bowling Green at Nebraska+20
Sat 9/19Bowling Green at Iowa State+16
Sat 9/26Bowling Green vs South Florida+8.5
Sat 10/3Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+13
Sat 10/10Bowling Green vs Sacramento State-8
Sat 10/17Bowling Green vs Ball State-14.5
Sat 10/24Bowling Green at Buffalo+2.5
Sat 10/31Bowling Green at Western Michigan+7.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/10Bowling Green vs Kent State-9.5
Wed 11/18Bowling Green at Toledo+8
Sat 11/28Bowling Green vs Massachusetts-20.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Iowa State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State-25.5
Sat 9/12Iowa State at Iowa+13
Sat 9/19Iowa State vs Bowling Green-16
Sat 9/26Iowa State vs Utah+5
Sat 10/3Iowa State vs West Virginia-3.5
Sat 10/10Iowa State at BYU+15.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/24Iowa State at Arizona+10.5
Sat 10/31Iowa State vs Oklahoma State+1.5
Sat 11/7Iowa State at Baylor+4.5
Sat 11/14Iowa State vs Cincinnati-3
Sat 11/21Iowa State at UCF+3.5
Sat 11/28Iowa State vs Kansas State+4

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Iowa State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#128 (.02)36% (128)20.537% (125)2.88 (78)15635% (124)1513.19 (118)#61 (.15)41% (56)24.339% (40)42% (68)3.44 (48)611.21.3
ISU#60 (.19)45% (43)27.446% (45)3 (59)17444% (43)2213.54 (85)#32 (.09)39% (43)20.240% (42)40% (53)3.06 (20)401.21.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ISU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1220.52435.6%3.191.217307156151458%40%37%35%16%.02
ISU Defense1220.218.839.4%3.061.5 - - - - - 47%50%40%40%17%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1224.32940.6%3.441.3 - - - - - 53%46%39%42%19%.15
ISU Offense1227.432.344.7%3.541.2213961742214.454%45%46%44%15%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1231:1816.637%42%6.7611.21.36.21.8131
Iowa State1231:3421.140%68%4.6401.21.551.1129.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1258% (15)37% (125)39.3155.5413 (119).03 (112)2.88 (78)58% (133)10% (95)0.95 (76)
ISU Defense1247% (42)40% (42) - - - - .01 (17)2.79 (49)70% (56)10% (65)0.83 (11)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1253% (105)39% (40) - - - - .06 (48)2.74 (40)59% (9)13% (8)1.06 (116)
ISU Offense1254% (35)46% (45)39.8174.24.423 (30).15 (48)3 (59)69% (90)8% (36)0.93 (82)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1240% (122)35% (124)13.823.8151.36.410.913 (106)12 (119).07 (129)1.6 (47)34% (110)25% (121).19 (114)6% (65)2.1 (50)
ISU Defense1250% (92)40% (53) - - - - - - 11 (38).24 (67)1.6 (74)33% (45)29% (62).23 (47)7% (28)1.7 (3)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1246% (34)42% (68) - - - - - - 6 (75).28 (82)1.6 (95)33% (49)31% (86).32 (79)7% (43)2.1 (85)
ISU Offense1245% (101)44% (43)17.528.8221.47.712.716 (86)9 (20).29 (52)1.6 (55)30% (48)31% (68).21 (100)6% (81)2.1 (42)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -9.73  #113
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 10.94  #108
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.67  #116
2026 Talent Rating: 487.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Bowling Green's 2026 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Bowling Green's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.3  #115
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.8  #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #86

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -9.73   Iowa State: 4.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -13.3   Iowa State: 1.0




Iowa State's Power Ratings
Iowa State's Power Rating: 4.545  #52
Iowa State's Offense Rating: 15.70  #68
Iowa State's Defense Rating: 12.61  #41
2026 Talent Rating: 718.00  #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Iowa State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Iowa State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.0  #64
Iowa State's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.9  #94
Iowa State's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4  #42

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 766.38
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa State 33
Bowling Green 17


Projected Total Points: 49
Iowa State Scoring
Offense: 27.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Iowa State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa State000 Overs
Bowling Green000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#113) BGSU at (#52) ISU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBGSUISU
Game ControlGC #113 #28
Momentum ControlMC #83 #64
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #113 #52
SP+SP+ #115 #64
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #102 #65
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #104
Bowling Green Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Hopeful, George popular, can bowl TY
(3/4) QB Novosad a huge get, big talent for MAC QB
(3/4) RB duo of Dendy & Baldwin (FCS) looks decent
(3/4) WR really need FCS portals or depth to hit
(3/4) OL looks rough, only 2 with PT exp. Some depth
(3/4) DL has some exp, has size. DE's can rush some
(3/4) DBs look strong, even better if FCS portals hit
Bowling Green Injury Report
Iowa State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: OK for a team w new staff, 70 new players
(2/10) 13 portal starters tops in CFB, 13 exp'd depth too
(2/9) OC Roehl recently NFL, was NDSU's OC for 4 yrs
(2/9) HC Rogers at Wazzu for 1 year, SDSU previously
(2/9) QB Raynor (Ark St) decent, mobile, must limit TOs
(2/9) RBs are pretty green and young. Unclear
(2/9) WR built by 5 portals, most G5. Hayes (Tul) good
(2/9) OL 10 portals. Most exp'd are G5s. TBD
(2/9) Def 24 portals. DBs look good. Need more info
Iowa State Injury Report
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffISU Def
Game ControlGC #120 #30
Momentum ControlMC #114 #47
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #128 #43
ExplosiveExp #82 #51
PPAPPA #128 #32
PowerPwr #108 #41
SP+SP+ #128 #42
Pts POPPO #118 #20
HavocHav #80 #46
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffISU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #125 #42
Run ExplRExp #76 #11
PPAExp #112 #17
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #78 #49
Stuff RateStuff #66 #36
TackleTak - NR
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffISU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #53
Pass ExplPExl #47 #74
PPAExp #129 #67
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #95 #65
DB HavocDB #65 #28
Iowa State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatISU OffBGSU Def
Game ControlGC #26 #111
Momentum ControlMC #79 #72
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #43 #56
ExplosiveExp #92 #105
PPAPPA #60 #61
PowerPwr #68 #116
SP+SP+ #94 #86
Pts POPPO #85 #48
HavocHav #54 #12
Iowa State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ISU OffBGSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #45 #40
Run ExplRExp #82 #116
PPAExp #48 #48
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #59 #40
Stuff RateStuff #57 #8
TackleTak - NR
Iowa State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatISU OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #43 #68
Pass ExplPExl #55 #95
PPAExp #52 #82
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #36 #8
DB HavocDB #81 #43
Program Comparison
ISU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jack Trice Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Najm336650%473547.2
Austin Novosad (Tr)1250%400020.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ke'Marion Baldwin (Tr)15977864.989
Austyn Dendy10849354.624
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)11136112.442
Nakai Amachree72203.111
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)42575413.767
Nicholas Sowell21247111.826
Brennan Ridley4110127.587
Austyn Dendy464116.027

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kal-El Pascal804005
Armahn Hale (Tr)444001
Preston EstoEsta291001
Dorian Pringle276100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley206570
Eriq George265420
Andrew Hines III224110
Dorian Pringle276100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson2200013
Kal-El Pascal804005
Nick Sawyer (Tr)30002

ISU's OC Tyler Roehl (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaylen Raynor (Tr)33250066%336419116.7
Zane Flores (Tr)15526259%1454375.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Raynor (Tr)15442872.842
Cameron Pettaway (Tr)7236505.134
Zane Flores (Tr)5211722.327
Salahadin Allah (Tr)197103.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cody Jackson (Tr)53799615.160
Omari Hayes (Tr)39515113.242
Tyler Fortenberry (Tr)3229429.228
Carter Pabst (Tr)9168118.743

View Iowa State's Full Roster

ISU's DC Jesse Bobbit (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Malcolm Jones (Tr)515310
Sullivan Schlimgen (Tr)492010
Braden Awls (Tr)487104
Key'on Washington372103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Terrell (Tr)2812761
Malcolm Jones (Tr)515310
Malaki Ta'ase (Tr)174332
Bryson Lamb (Tr)254232
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Braden Awls (Tr)487104
Key'on Washington372103
Seth Johnson (Tr)70012