Sat, Nov 21 2026
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
44,206 cap
Iowa State✈ 1,159 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UCF,
while Game Control favors Iowa State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
UCF wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Iowa State wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa State 2026 Schedule
Iowa State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Iowa State at Iowa | +11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Iowa State vs Bowling Green | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Iowa State vs Utah | +0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Iowa State vs West Virginia | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Iowa State at BYU | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/24 | Iowa State at Arizona | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Iowa State vs Oklahoma State | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Iowa State at Baylor | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Iowa State vs Cincinnati | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Iowa State at UCF | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Iowa State vs Kansas State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
UCF 2026 Schedule
UCF's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | UCF vs Bethune-Cookman | -25 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | UCF at Pittsburgh | +10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | UCF vs Georgia State | -25.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | UCF vs TCU | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | UCF at Houston | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | UCF at Oklahoma State | +6 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/24 | UCF vs BYU | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | UCF vs Baylor | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | UCF at Kansas | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | UCF vs Arizona State | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | UCF vs Iowa State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | UCF at Colorado | -3 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UCF Edge
UCF +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa State Edge
Iowa State +13.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Iowa State
Jimmy Rogers #96
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tyler Roehl
Yr 1
#67
DC
Jesse Bobbit
Yr 1
#54
UCF
Scott Frost #99
24–14 (63%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Steve Cooper
Yr 2
#112
DC
Alex Grinch
Yr 2
#117
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓