Oregon State at Houston - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Oregon State Beavers at Houston Cougars

Houston logo
Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium - Houston, TX

 
Beavers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach JaMarcus Shephard (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 7.2 (#97)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
Our Line: Houston -17  (SP+ HOU -15)
Projected Score: ORST: 16 - HOU: 33 (49)
HOU Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
ORST Travel: 1834 miles, 2 hrs behind
Cougars (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Willie Fritz (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 29 - 23 (26 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#28)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
 
Oregon State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Oregon State at Houston+17
Sat 9/12Oregon State vs Texas Tech+28.5
Sat 9/19Oregon State vs Montana-17
Sat 9/26Oregon State at UTEP-9.5
Sat 10/3Oregon State at Colorado State+0
Sat 10/10Oregon State vs San Diego State+4.5
Sat 10/17Oregon State vs Washington State-1.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Oregon State at Fresno State+9
Sat 11/7Oregon State vs Texas State+1.5
Sat 11/14Oregon State at Boise State+14
Sat 11/21Oregon State vs Utah State-4

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Houston's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Houston vs Oregon State-17
Sat 9/12Houston vs Southern-29.5
Sat 9/19Houston at Texas Tech+19.5
Sat 9/26Houston at Georgia Southern-13.5
Sat 10/3Houston vs UCF-7.5
Sat 10/10Houston at Kansas State+2.5
Sat 10/17Houston vs Oklahoma State-5
Sat 10/24Houston at Utah+4
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Houston vs Cincinnati-9
Sat 11/14Houston at Colorado-5.5
Sat 11/21Houston at West Virginia-4.5
Sat 11/28Houston vs Baylor-6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Houston's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#124 (.05)42% (68)17.644% (67)2.82 (89)12742% (68)2252.89 (128)#77 (.18)38% (25)29.441% (51)36% (18)3.41 (46)49.91.70.8
HOU#102 (.12)42% (74)29.140% (99)2.61 (125)17945% (35)2163.55 (83)#44 (.11)42% (65)22.846% (104)38% (35)3.91 (94)40.11.11.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HOU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1217.611.842.3%2.891.7203531272253.846%52%44%42%16%.05
HOU Defense1322.824.241.5%3.911.4 - - - - - 49%49%46%38%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1229.435.238.3%3.410.8 - - - - - 49%49%41%36%17%.18
HOU Offense1329.125.741.9%3.551.1223951792164.357%42%40%45%13%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1231:5220.436%40%5.949.91.70.85.31.3028.3
Houston1332:1822.141%59%4.640.11.11.44.72.2230.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1246% (98)44% (67)33.9127.33.815 (60).01 (120)2.82 (89)77% (30)9% (61)0.73 (135)
HOU Defense1349% (55)46% (104) - - - - .05 (41)2.7 (32)76% (104)9% (84)0.78 (5)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1249% (59)41% (51) - - - - .07 (52)2.6 (17)68% (43)10% (57)0.94 (57)
HOU Offense1357% (17)40% (99)41.9178.64.317 (78)-.03 (132)2.61 (125)73% (61)8% (40)0.8 (130)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1252% (36)42% (68)21.735.9225.46.310.414 (61)13 (127).11 (123)1.3 (133)31% (68)28% (96).05 (131)7% (110)1.7 (134)
HOU Defense1349% (80)38% (35) - - - - - - 12 (38).21 (56)1.5 (53)32% (60)25% (14).23 (46)7% (28)2.1 (100)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1249% (81)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).31 (98)2 (136)33% (44)29% (69).44 (126)7% (15)2.5 (136)
HOU Offense1342% (118)45% (35)18.629216.47.511.626 (50)10 (20).35 (35)1.7 (16)30% (43)27% (105).21 (101)5% (33)2 (79)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -6.59  #106
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 12.97  #99
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 19.56  #110
2026 Talent Rating: 620.00  #78
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #69
Oregon State's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 7.2
Oregon State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.3  #91
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #104
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #74

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -6.59   Houston: 10.74

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -6.3   Houston: 8.2




Houston's Power Ratings
Houston's Power Rating: 10.74  #27
Houston's Offense Rating: 19.80  #24
Houston's Defense Rating: 11.52  #33
2026 Talent Rating: 769.00  #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #52
Houston's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Houston's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2  #36
Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3  #30
Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.8  #45

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 766.38
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Houston 33
Oregon State 16


Projected Total Points: 49
Houston Scoring
Offense: 29.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Houston's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/26Oregon State24Houston27Houston -11.5Oregon State48.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Houston101 Overs
Oregon State010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#106) ORST at (#27) HOU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTHOU
Game ControlGC #130 #51
Momentum ControlMC #99 #49
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #106 #27
SP+SP+ #91 #36
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #78 #54
Blue ChipsBC% #69 #52
Oregon State Notes
(3/1) Vibes: Shephard is crootin & building best he can
(3/1) QB Atkinson (Mercer) a big add, can sling it
(3/1) RB not much here, not much exp. Who emerges?
(3/1) WR McDaniel (w/ QB), TE Olsen big target
(3/1) OL eh.. not great. 3 portals, 2 are starters
(3/1) Def lots of FCS adds, LB/DE mix, DL has ?
(3/1) Pass rush concerns, need FCS hits
(3/1) CBs look good, Safeties very inexp'd.
(2/2) Reset w/ Shephard in new P12 after Brey fired
(2/2) Special Teams were a disaster in '25, must fix
Oregon State Injury Report
Houston Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Great, HC Fritz cookin here, high hopes
(3/17) LBs are loaded with exp, 6 guys. Should be good
(3/17) QB Weigman good, mobile. Henderson huge croot
(3/17) RB big ? really need Hughes (OU) or depth to hit
(3/17) OL need 3 G6 risers to hit, but very exp'd, promising
(3/17) DL very inexp'd, lacks big options on paper. Big ?
(3/17) DBs look good, CB duo good, Saf has good options
(2/6) 247 has Hou portal class #46, On3 top ten?
(2/4) HC Fritz great job 10 wins in year 2. Big jump
(2/4) OC Nagle has a lot to prove this year
(2/4) WR duo of Thomas/Walker really good. Have depth
(2/4) Pass rush a big concern on paper, v low grades
Houston Injury Report
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffHOU Def
Game ControlGC #129 #61
Momentum ControlMC #85 #70
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #68 #65
ExplosiveExp #135 #9
PPAPPA #124 #44
PowerPwr #99 #33
SP+SP+ #104 #45
Pts POPPO #128 #94
HavocHav #89 #58
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffHOU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #67 #104
Run ExplRExp #135 #5
PPAExp #120 #41
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #89 #32
Stuff RateStuff #24 #54
TackleTak - NR
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffHOU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #68 #35
Pass ExplPExl #133 #53
PPAExp #123 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #84
DB HavocDB #110 #28
Houston on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffORST Def
Game ControlGC #47 #128
Momentum ControlMC #23 #100
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #74 #25
ExplosiveExp #85 #133
PPAPPA #102 #77
PowerPwr #24 #110
SP+SP+ #30 #74
Pts POPPO #83 #46
HavocHav #36 #36
Houston Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCat
HOU OffORST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #99 #51
Run ExplRExp #130 #57
PPAExp #132 #52
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #125 #17
Stuff RateStuff #108 #22
TackleTak - NR
Houston Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 41%
CategoryCatHOU OffORST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #35 #18
Pass ExplPExl #16 #136
PPAExp #35 #98
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #40 #57
DB HavocDB #33 #15
Program Comparison
HOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

ORST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Houston beat Oregon State last year (27-24)

  
ORST's OC Mitch Dahlen (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braden Atkinson (Tr)26840766%361134118.9
Maalik Murphy16027658%1802986.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
AJ Newberry (Tr)185733.216
Xayvion Noland (Tr)255027.552
Eric Olsen (Tr)73104.48
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xayvion Noland (Tr)37776721.076
Adonis McDaniel (Tr)52676613.056
Eric Olsen (Tr)51566211.149
Gabe Milbourn17185110.926

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Mike MacIntyre (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aiden Sullivan727151
Takari Hickle385250
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Tyree Blake292001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Takari Hickle385250
Jacob Schuster142202
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaylen Hill21101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Glasper232005
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Jacob Schuster142202

HOU's OC Slade Nagle (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Conner Weigman23235665%27052597.6
Luke Carney (Tr)5771%22003.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Conner Weigman170703114.150
DJ Butler6830104.415
Makhi Hughes (Tr)177004.119
Luke Carney (Tr)102812.818
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Amare Thomas679661214.464
Trent Walker (Tr)68823212.143
Patrick Overmyer (Tr)27344512.745
Koby Young12191015.943

View Houston's Full Roster

HOU's DC Austin Armstrong (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kentrell Webb713004
Jaden Yates (Tr)552100
Sione Fotu531120
Jordan Allen482102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Mack326510
Khalil Laufau343221
Latreveon McCutchin373142
Carmycah Glass241122
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javion White (Tr)444006
Will James394005
Kentrell Webb713004