Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Paulson Stadium
Statesboro, GA
·
Turf
·
24,300 cap
Houston✈ 823 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Houston,
while Game Control favors Georgia Southern.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Georgia Southern wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Houston
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Houston 2026 Schedule
Houston's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Houston vs Oregon State | -21.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Houston vs Southern | -29.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Houston at Texas Tech | +22.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Houston at Georgia Southern | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Houston vs UCF | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Houston at Kansas State | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Houston vs Oklahoma State | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Houston at Utah | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Houston vs Cincinnati | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Houston at Colorado | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Houston at West Virginia | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Houston vs Baylor | -8 | — | — | — | — |
Georgia Southern 2026 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/12 | Georgia Southern at Clemson | +19.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | Georgia Southern vs Houston | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Houston Edge
Houston +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +2.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Houston
Willie Fritz #23
14–11 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Slade Nagle
Yr 2
#114
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 2
#36
Georgia Southern
Clay Helton #122
27–25 (52%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Ryan Aplin
Yr 3
#106
DC
Mike Mutz
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓