Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Gainesville, FL
·
Turf
·
88,548 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 517 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Florida wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida -18
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2023 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i | -17.0W35–28 | 54.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/2 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M | -35.0W47–13 | 53.5 | W47–13 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Vanderbilt at Wake Forest | +9.5L20–36 | 55.0 | L20–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Vanderbilt at UNLV | -4.5L37–40 | 56.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | +13.5L28–45 | 50.0 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | +14.0L21–38 | 53.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +18.0L14–38 | 51.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia | +32.5L20–37 | 55.0 | L20–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | +24.0L7–33 | 62.0 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Vanderbilt vs Auburn | +12.5L15–31 | 50.0 | L15–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +13.5L6–47 | 53.5 | L6–47 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/25 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +27.0L24–48 | 58.0 | L24–48 | O | Y |
Florida 2023 Schedule
Florida's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Florida at Utah | +5.5L11–24 | 44.5 | L11–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Florida vs McNeese | -48.5W49–7 | 55.5 | W49–7 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Florida vs Tennessee | +5.0W29–16 | 57.0 | W29–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Florida vs Charlotte | -28.0W22–7 | 48.5 | W22–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Florida at Kentucky | +1.0L14–33 | 44.0 | L14–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -18.0W38–14 | 51.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/14 | Florida at South Carolina | -1.0W41–39 | 50.0 | W41–39 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Florida vs Georgia | +14.0L20–43 | 50.0 | L20–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Florida vs Arkansas | -4.5L36–39 | 50.0 | L36–39 | O | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Florida at LSU | +14.0L35–52 | 68.5 | L35–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Florida at Missouri | +12.5L31–33 | 56.5 | L31–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Florida vs Florida State | +6.0L15–24 | 51.0 | L15–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Edge
Florida +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +16.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida
73.9 — 9.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida won by 24
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–19 (32%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joey Lynch
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 2
#1
Florida
Billy Napier #1
8–8 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rob Sale
Yr 2
#1
DC
Austin Armstrong
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓