Sat, Aug 26 2023
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium
Nashville, TN
·
Turf
·
40,350 cap
Hawai'i✈ 4,330 mi+5 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Vanderbilt -17
O/U 54.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Hawai'i
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Hawai'i 2023 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Hawai'i at Vanderbilt | +17.0L28–35 | 54.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/1 | Hawai'i vs Stanford | +2.0L24–37 | 54.0 | L24–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Hawai'i vs UAlbany | -10.5W31–20 | 58.5 | W31–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Hawai'i at Oregon | +38.5L10–55 | 67.5 | L10–55 | U | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico State | -4.0W20–17 | 54.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Hawai'i at UNLV | +10.5L20–44 | 58.5 | L20–44 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/14 | Hawai'i vs San Diego State | +6.0L34–41 | 51.5 | L34–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Hawai'i at New Mexico | -1.5L21–42 | 60.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Hawai'i vs San José State | +10.5L0–35 | 57.0 | L0–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Hawai'i at Nevada | +3.5W27–14 | 50.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Hawai'i vs Air Force | +22.5W27–13 | 47.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Hawai'i at Wyoming | +13.5L9–42 | 45.5 | L9–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Hawai'i vs Colorado State | +6.0W27–24 | 54.0 | W27–24 | U | Y |
Vanderbilt 2023 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i | -17.0W35–28 | 54.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/2 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M | -35.0W47–13 | 53.5 | W47–13 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Vanderbilt at Wake Forest | +9.5L20–36 | 55.0 | L20–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Vanderbilt at UNLV | -4.5L37–40 | 56.5 | L37–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Vanderbilt vs Kentucky | +13.5L28–45 | 50.0 | L28–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Vanderbilt vs Missouri | +14.0L21–38 | 53.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +18.0L14–38 | 51.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Vanderbilt vs Georgia | +32.5L20–37 | 55.0 | L20–37 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Vanderbilt at Ole Miss | +24.0L7–33 | 62.0 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Vanderbilt vs Auburn | +12.5L15–31 | 50.0 | L15–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Vanderbilt at South Carolina | +13.5L6–47 | 53.5 | L6–47 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/25 | Vanderbilt at Tennessee | +27.0L24–48 | 58.0 | L24–48 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Hawai'i
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Vanderbilt, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
4–13 (24%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Roman Sapolu
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jacob Yoro
Yr 2
#1
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #1
9–19 (32%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Joey Lynch
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓