Sat, Sep 10 2022
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Week 2
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🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
Texas Southern✈ 261 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
North Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Texas -38.5
O/U 64.5
consensus
Texas Southern 2022 Schedule
Texas Southern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Texas Southern at North Texas | +38.5L27–59 | 64.5 | L27–59 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | Texas Southern at UTSA | +42.0L24–52 | 65.5 | L24–52 | O | Y |
North Texas 2022 Schedule
North Texas's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | North Texas at UTEP | -1.5W31–13 | 52.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | North Texas vs SMU | +9.5L10–48 | 67.5 | L10–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | North Texas vs Texas Southern | -38.5W59–27 | 64.5 | W59–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | North Texas at UNLV | +2.5L27–58 | 62.5 | L27–58 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | North Texas at Memphis | +13.0L34–44 | 68.5 | L34–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | North Texas vs Florida Atlantic | +3.0W45–28 | 67.5 | W45–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | North Texas vs Louisiana Tech | -6.5W47–27 | 68.0 | W47–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | North Texas at UTSA | +10.0L27–31 | 73.0 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | North Texas at Western Kentucky | +10.0W40–13 | 70.0 | W40–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | North Texas vs Florida International | -21.0W52–14 | 63.5 | W52–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | North Texas at UAB | +6.5L21–41 | 58.0 | L21–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/26 | North Texas vs Rice | -14.5W21–17 | 57.0 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Fri 12/2 | North Texas at UTSA | +8.5L27–48 | 70.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 12/17 | North Texas vs Boise State | +12.0L32–35 | 63.0 | L32–35 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Southern Edge
Texas Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +35.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓