Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Alamodome
San Antonio, TX
·
Turf
·
65,000 cap
Texas Southern✈ 189 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
UTSA wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UT San Antonio -42
O/U 65.5
consensus
Texas Southern 2022 Schedule
Texas Southern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Texas Southern at North Texas | +38.5L27–59 | 64.5 | L27–59 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | Texas Southern at UTSA | +42.0L24–52 | 65.5 | L24–52 | O | Y |
UTSA 2022 Schedule
UTSA's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | UTSA vs Houston | +3.5L35–37 | 61.5 | L35–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | UTSA at Army | -2.0W41–38 | 54.0 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | UTSA at Texas | +13.0L20–41 | 57.5 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | UTSA vs Texas Southern | -42.0W52–24 | 65.5 | W52–24 | O | N |
| Fri 9/30 | UTSA at Middle Tennessee | -4.5W45–30 | 64.0 | W45–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | UTSA vs Western Kentucky | -6.5W31–28 | 72.5 | W31–28 | U | N |
| Fri 10/14 | UTSA at Florida International | -33.0W30–10 | 64.0 | W30–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | UTSA vs North Texas | -10.0W31–27 | 73.0 | W31–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | UTSA at UAB | -2.5W44–38 | 53.5 | W44–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UTSA vs Louisiana Tech | -17.0W51–7 | 68.5 | W51–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UTSA at Rice | -14.0W41–7 | 56.0 | W41–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | UTSA vs UTEP | -16.5W34–31 | 56.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Fri 12/2 | UTSA vs North Texas | -8.5W48–27 | 70.0 | W48–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/16 | UTSA vs Troy | +2.0L12–18 | 55.5 | L12–18 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Southern Edge
Texas Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UTSA Edge
UTSA +61.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓