Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
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🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, AL
·
Turf
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101,821 cap
Austin Peay✈ 230 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Alabama wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Alabama -45
O/U 58.0
consensus
Austin Peay 2022 Schedule
Austin Peay's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Austin Peay at Western Kentucky | +32.5L27–38 | 72.0 | L27–38 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/19 | Austin Peay at Alabama | +45.0L0–34 | 58.0 | L0–34 | U | Y |
Alabama 2022 Schedule
Alabama's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Alabama vs Utah State | -42.0W55–0 | 63.0 | W55–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Alabama at Texas | -21.0W20–19 | 64.0 | W20–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Alabama vs UL Monroe | -49.5W63–7 | 68.5 | W63–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Alabama vs Vanderbilt | -40.5W55–3 | 61.0 | W55–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Alabama at Arkansas | -17.0W49–26 | 61.0 | W49–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Alabama vs Texas A&M | -24.0W24–20 | 48.0 | W24–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Alabama at Tennessee | -9.0L49–52 | 68.0 | L49–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Alabama vs Mississippi State | -21.5W30–6 | 61.5 | W30–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Alabama at LSU | -13.5L31–32 | 56.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Alabama at Ole Miss | -11.0W30–24 | 65.5 | W30–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Alabama vs Austin Peay | -45.0W34–0 | 58.0 | W34–0 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Alabama vs Auburn | -22.0W49–27 | 51.0 | W49–27 | O | N |
| Sat 12/31 | Alabama vs Kansas State | -8.0W45–20 | 58.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +1.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +71.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Alabama
98.1 — 0.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Alabama won by 34
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Alabama with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓