Massachusetts at Toledo - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Massachusetts Minutemen at Toledo Rockets

Toledo logo
Wednesday, November 11th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Minutemen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 12)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1.3 - 10.7 (#117)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Toledo -32  (SP+ TOL -43)
Projected Score: UMASS: 9 - TOL: 41 (50)
TOL Win prob: 100% | Cover: 41%
UMASS Travel: 570 miles
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#8)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Massachusetts's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Massachusetts at Rutgers+30.5
Sat 9/12Massachusetts vs Sacred Heart+8.5
Sat 9/19Massachusetts vs Stonehill+8.5
Sat 9/26Massachusetts at Sacramento State+29
Sat 10/3Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan+18
Sat 10/10Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+28
Sat 10/17Massachusetts at Buffalo+25.5
Sat 10/24Massachusetts at UConn+31
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Massachusetts vs Ball State+7.5
Wed 11/11Massachusetts at Toledo+32
Wed 11/18Massachusetts vs Akron+16.5
Sat 11/28Massachusetts at Bowling Green+23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Toledo at Michigan State-4
Sat 9/12Toledo vs Central Connecticut-27.5
Sat 9/19Toledo vs Temple-11
Sat 9/26Toledo vs San Diego State-1.5
Sat 10/3Toledo at Ball State-23.5
Sat 10/10Toledo vs Buffalo-15.5
Sat 10/17Toledo at Eastern Michigan-13
Sat 10/24Toledo vs Western Michigan-10
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Toledo at Sacramento State-6.5
Wed 11/11Toledo vs Massachusetts-32
Wed 11/18Toledo vs Bowling Green-17.5
Fri 11/27Toledo at Ohio-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS#135 (-.01)34% (134)11.133% (136)2.05 (136)8234% (129)1652.17 (136)#133 (.28)48% (130)38.649% (129)48% (129)4.64 (134)41.41.30.8
TOL#63 (.18)44% (53)30.843% (70)2.91 (73)17844% (40)2383.86 (55)#2 (-.07)33% (4)13.339% (29)28% (1)2.45 (4)74.61.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Offense1211.19.333.7%2.171.316248821652.845%54%33%34%20%-.01
TOL Defense1313.37.733.3%2.451.6 - - - - - 52%45%39%28%20%-.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Defense1238.642.548%4.640.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%9%.28
TOL Offense1330.845.843.6%3.861.2214161782384.949%49%43%44%13%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Massachusetts1226:5615.531%23%5.241.41.30.83.31.1125.9
Toledo1330:2621.240%24%8.574.61.21.67.12.8331.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense1245% (108)33% (136)29.382.42.86 (122)-.03 (129)2.05 (136)60% (127)13% (127)1.12 (12)
TOL Defense1352% (98)39% (29) - - - - -.01 (13)2.36 (7)67% (39)13% (7)0.87 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense1255% (126)49% (129) - - - - .2 (121)3.53 (136)77% (106)6% (136)0.84 (14)
TOL Offense1349% (69)43% (70)36.2177.74.922 (40).12 (64)2.91 (73)78% (27)9% (53)0.9 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense1254% (26)34% (129)18.634.6165.14.88.98 (134)9 (88).02 (132)1.3 (135)38% (135)25% (119).14 (126)7% (110)2 (70)
TOL Defense1345% (30)28% (1) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.08 (1)1.6 (108)35% (22)19% (1)-.01 (1)7% (15)2.2 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense1243% (12)48% (129) - - - - - - 4 (75).41 (128)1.6 (103)26% (134)33% (105).42 (120)3% (136)2 (76)
TOL Offense1349% (66)44% (40)19.730.7238.17.812.127 (22)10 (60).28 (55)1.6 (62)32% (71)29% (79).2 (112)4% (11)1.9 (115)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -27.76  #138
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 1.09  #138
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 29.09  #138
2026 Talent Rating: 354.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 250%  #67
Massachusetts's 2026 Expected Record: 1.3 - 10.7
Massachusetts's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.6  #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.8  #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.8  #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 468.77
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.7

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -27.76   Toledo: 6.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -36.6   Toledo: 6.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 6.415  #59
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.75  #68
Toledo's Defense Rating: 13.92  #56
2026 Talent Rating: 544.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 125  #81
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0  #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 468.77
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.7


Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 41
Massachusetts 9


Projected Total Points: 50
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/07Toledo38Massachusetts23Toledo -17.5Massachusetts50.5Over
202310/07Massachusetts24Toledo41Toledo -19Massachusetts55.5Over
202209/10Toledo55Massachusetts10Toledo -28Toledo49.0Over
202110/02Massachusetts7Toledo45Toledo -26.5Toledo56.5Under
201510/24Massachusetts35Toledo51Toledo -9.5Toledo61.0Over
201410/25Toledo42Massachusetts35Toledo -17.5Massachusetts0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo634 Overs
Massachusetts031 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 32 - 41 - 21 - 2
Road Teams3 - 34 - 22 - 12 - 1

(#138) UMASS at (#59) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUMASSTOL
Game ControlGC #136 #69
Momentum ControlMC #124 #22
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #138 #59
SP+SP+ #136 #48
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #130 #93
Blue ChipsBC% #67 #81
Massachusetts Notes
(2/27) Vibes: Why bother. School deserves better
(2/27) 8 wins in 7 years (8-68), should not be FBS
(2/27) QB Watson (VT) vs Johnson (FAMU)... meh
(2/27) RB a stable of longshots with 2 portal adds
(2/27) WR could have upside w King (FCS), Matthews
(2/27) OL 6 w starting exp, 2 from FCS. Better than exp
(2/27) DL severely lacks size, talent. Have bros from IU?
(2/27) LB best unit on team, by far. 3 good starters
(2/27) DBs will be bad, likely really bad.
Massachusetts Injury Report
Toledo Notes
(2/6) HC Jacobs (Mercer) is 94-23 as a head coach
(2/6) OC Reisert was HC @ Gard Webb, DC from Mercer
(2/6) QB Khamoni Robinson from Lenoir-Rhyne as QB1?
(2/6) Jacobs brought 13 portals from Mercer w him
(2/6) RB CJ Miller (Mer) exp'd, there's depth here
(2/6) WR has parts, Dabbs (Mer) really productive
(2/6) OL has 6 w good exp & prod, 3 are FCS portals
(2/6) DTs light and inexp'd. DEs have played, but ?
(2/6) LB corp looks good, although depth is green
(2/6) DBs no clue, top 2 are FCS, not much exp after
Toledo Injury Report
Massachusetts on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffTOL Def
Game ControlGC #136 #31
Momentum ControlMC #135 #16
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #134 #4
ExplosiveExp #78 #22
PPAPPA #135 #2
PowerPwr #138 #56
SP+SP+ #136 #21
Pts POPPO #136 #4
HavocHav #131 #5
Massachusetts Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #29
Run ExplRExp #12 #22
PPAExp #129 #13
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #136 #7
Stuff RateStuff #136 #27
TackleTak - NR
Massachusetts Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #129 #1
Pass ExplPExl #135 #108
PPAExp #132 #1
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #127 #7
DB HavocDB #110 #15
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffUMASS Def
Game ControlGC #100 #136
Momentum ControlMC #41 #117
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #53 #130
ExplosiveExp #76 #24
PPAPPA #63 #133
PowerPwr #68 #138
SP+SP+ #75 #136
Pts POPPO #55 #134
HavocHav #22 #136
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffUMASS Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #129
Run ExplRExp #95 #14
PPAExp #64 #121
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #73 #136
Stuff RateStuff #86 #136
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #129
Pass ExplPExl #62 #103
PPAExp #55 #128
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #53 #136
DB HavocDB #11 #136
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (38-23)
Toledo beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-24)

  
UMASS's OC Max Warner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
RJ Johnson III (Tr)17626566%21861648.2
William Watson III (Tr)2450%770019.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Washington (Tr)8634034.024
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)3519725.637
RJ Johnson III (Tr)5713932.426
Elijah Faulkner4011402.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randall King (Tr)59689511.777
Devin Matthews (Tr)36649718.059
Jordan Washington (Tr)2220219.260
Max Dowling20199310.077

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Zeraun Daniel753002
Timmy Hinspeter694222
Kendall Bournes582000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Timmy Hinspeter694222
William Depaepe (Tr)21100
Tyler Martin973002
Kezion Dia-Johnson30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon (Tr)242005
Tyler Martin973002
Timmy Hinspeter694222

TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Alan Richter172568%153316.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Miller (Tr)168953145.779
Connor Walendzak329903.111
Michael Drennen II96006.715
Dane Nauman94004.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Adjatay Dabbs (Tr)45856819.084
Kalvin Gilbert46653714.265
CJ Miller (Tr)26314312.159
Peyton Strickland2422649.465

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Langston Long335000
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
Isaac Prince53100
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Dylan Hohler71011
Donovan Watkins (Tr)20001