Massachusetts at Buffalo - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Massachusetts Minutemen at Buffalo Bulls

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Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
UB Stadium - Amherst, NY  (Mid-American)

 
Minutemen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 12)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1.3 - 10.7 (#117)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
BUFF is playing their 7th straight game
UMASS is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -25.5  (SP+ BUFF -29)

Projected Score: UMASS: 12 - BUFF: 37 (49)
BUFF Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
UMASS Travel: 320 miles
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Massachusetts's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Massachusetts at Rutgers+30.5
Sat 9/12Massachusetts vs Sacred Heart+8.5
Sat 9/19Massachusetts vs Stonehill+8.5
Sat 9/26Massachusetts at Sacramento State+29
Sat 10/3Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan+18
Sat 10/10Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+28
Sat 10/17Massachusetts at Buffalo+25.5
Sat 10/24Massachusetts at UConn+31
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Massachusetts vs Ball State+7.5
Wed 11/11Massachusetts at Toledo+32
Wed 11/18Massachusetts vs Akron+16.5
Sat 11/28Massachusetts at Bowling Green+23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-14.5
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+4.5
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+25
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-14.5
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+3.5
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+15.5
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-25.5
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-4.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+10.5
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-10.5
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan-0
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS#135 (-.01)34% (134)11.133% (136)2.05 (136)8234% (129)1652.17 (136)#133 (.28)48% (130)38.649% (129)48% (129)4.64 (134)41.41.30.8
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Offense1211.19.333.7%2.171.316248821652.845%54%33%34%20%-.01
BUFF Defense1223.524.139.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Defense1238.642.548%4.640.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%9%.28
BUFF Offense122424.638.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Massachusetts1226:5615.531%23%5.241.41.30.83.31.1125.9
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense1245% (108)33% (136)29.382.42.86 (122)-.03 (129)2.05 (136)60% (127)13% (127)1.12 (12)
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense1255% (126)49% (129) - - - - .2 (121)3.53 (136)77% (106)6% (136)0.84 (14)
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense1254% (26)34% (129)18.634.6165.14.88.98 (134)9 (88).02 (132)1.3 (135)38% (135)25% (119).14 (126)7% (110)2 (70)
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense1243% (12)48% (129) - - - - - - 4 (75).41 (128)1.6 (103)26% (134)33% (105).42 (120)3% (136)2 (76)
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -27.76  #138
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 1.09  #138
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 29.09  #138
2026 Talent Rating: 354.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 250%  #67
Massachusetts's 2026 Expected Record: 1.3 - 10.7
Massachusetts's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.6  #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.8  #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.8  #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -27.76   Buffalo: -6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -36.6   Buffalo: -7.5




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -6.64  #117
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.34  #104
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #97
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 37
Massachusetts 12


Projected Total Points: 49
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Massachusetts21Buffalo28Buffalo -16.5Massachusetts47.5Over
202409/14Buffalo34Massachusetts3Buffalo -3.5Buffalo45.5Under
202210/15Massachusetts7Buffalo34Buffalo -17Buffalo47.5Under
201511/27Buffalo26Massachusetts31Buffalo -6Massachusetts55.0Over
201411/28Massachusetts21Buffalo41Buffalo -1Buffalo0
201310/19Buffalo32Massachusetts3Buffalo -20.5Buffalo0
201211/17Massachusetts19Buffalo29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo642 Overs
Massachusetts122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 53 - 32 - 11 - 2
Road Teams5 - 23 - 32 - 11 - 2

(#138) UMASS at (#117) BUFF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUMASSBUFF
Game ControlGC #136 #101
Momentum ControlMC #124 #55
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #138 #117
SP+SP+ #136 #97
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #130 #100
Blue ChipsBC% #67 #104
Massachusetts Notes
(2/27) Vibes: Why bother. School deserves better
(2/27) 8 wins in 7 years (8-68), should not be FBS
(2/27) QB Watson (VT) vs Johnson (FAMU)... meh
(2/27) RB a stable of longshots with 2 portal adds
(2/27) WR could have upside w King (FCS), Matthews
(2/27) OL 6 w starting exp, 2 from FCS. Better than exp
(2/27) DL severely lacks size, talent. Have bros from IU?
(2/27) LB best unit on team, by far. 3 good starters
(2/27) DBs will be bad, likely really bad.
Massachusetts Injury Report
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Massachusetts on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #136 #91
Momentum ControlMC #135 #23
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #134 #35
ExplosiveExp #78 #56
PPAPPA #135 #49
PowerPwr #138 #104
SP+SP+ #136 #70
Pts POPPO #136 #21
HavocHav #131 #75
Massachusetts Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #27
Run ExplRExp #12 #34
PPAExp #129 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #136 #79
Stuff RateStuff #136 #94
TackleTak - NR
Massachusetts Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #129 #47
Pass ExplPExl #135 #98
PPAExp #132 #61
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #127 #52
DB HavocDB #110 #95
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffUMASS Def
Game ControlGC #106 #136
Momentum ControlMC #98 #117
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #130
ExplosiveExp #104 #24
PPAPPA #116 #133
PowerPwr #124 #138
SP+SP+ #118 #136
Pts POPPO #91 #134
HavocHav #87 #136
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffUMASS Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #129
Run ExplRExp #108 #14
PPAExp #128 #121
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #136
Stuff RateStuff #68 #136
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #129
Pass ExplPExl #101 #103
PPAExp #103 #128
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #136
DB HavocDB #104 #136
Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Massachusetts last year (28-21)
Buffalo beat Massachusetts in 2024 (34-3)

  
UMASS's OC Max Warner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
RJ Johnson III (Tr)17626566%21861648.2
William Watson III (Tr)2450%770019.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Washington (Tr)8634034.024
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)3519725.637
RJ Johnson III (Tr)5713932.426
Elijah Faulkner4011402.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randall King (Tr)59689511.777
Devin Matthews (Tr)36649718.059
Jordan Washington (Tr)2220219.260
Max Dowling20199310.077

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Zeraun Daniel753002
Timmy Hinspeter694222
Kendall Bournes582000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Timmy Hinspeter694222
William Depaepe (Tr)21100
Tyler Martin973002
Kezion Dia-Johnson30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon (Tr)242005
Tyler Martin973002
Timmy Hinspeter694222

BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224