South Florida at Florida Atlantic - 2026 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo

South Florida Bulls at Florida Atlantic Owls

Florida Atlantic logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brian Hartline (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 2.7 (#11)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 7)
FAU is playing their 6th straight game
USF is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Florida -4  (SP+ USF -4.5)

Projected Score: USF: 36 - FAU: 32 (68)
USF Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 184 miles
Owls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Zach Kittley (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 36 (37 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#89)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
 
South Florida's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5South Florida vs Florida International-11
Sat 9/12South Florida at Army+1
Sat 9/19South Florida vs Delaware State-23
Sat 9/26South Florida at Bowling Green-8.5
Sat 10/3South Florida vs Temple-8.5
Thu 10/8South Florida at UTSA+2
Sat 10/17South Florida vs Kent State-20.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31South Florida vs UAB-19
Fri 11/6South Florida at East Carolina+2.5
Thu 11/12South Florida vs Memphis-1
Sat 11/21South Florida at Florida Atlantic-4
Fri 11/27South Florida vs Tulane-5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Florida Atlantic at Florida+22
Sat 9/12Florida Atlantic vs Navy+4
Sat 9/19Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-4.5
Sat 9/26Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe-12
Sat 10/3Florida Atlantic vs Texas Southern-16.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17Florida Atlantic at Army+7.5
Sat 10/24Florida Atlantic vs Rice-11.5
Thu 10/29Florida Atlantic at North Texas+2
Thu 11/5Florida Atlantic vs UTSA+3.5
Sat 11/14Florida Atlantic at Tulsa+6
Sat 11/21Florida Atlantic vs South Florida+4
Fri 11/27Florida Atlantic at East Carolina+9

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#12 (.31)46% (21)40.547% (26)3.33 (13)21246% (28)2764.45 (17)#20 (.07)38% (21)23.438% (14)38% (37)3.15 (28)611.51.9
FAU#43 (.21)42% (80)29.540% (97)2.76 (104)10543% (55)3413.49 (93)#123 (.26)45% (121)36.349% (127)42% (76)4.58 (132)562.40.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FAU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1340.53546.5%4.451.5244882122765.551%48%47%46%14%.31
FAU Defense1236.335.545.5%4.580.7 - - - - - 54%45%49%42%14%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1323.432.337.8%3.151.9 - - - - - 48%51%38%38%16%.07
FAU Offense1229.537.241.7%3.492.4254461053413.636%62%40%43%18%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:2423.846%62%6.6611.51.96.52.5329.5
Florida Atlantic1228:3224.837%66%6.6562.40.75.41.8230.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1351% (55)47% (26)38.8212.25.529 (30).18 (38)3.33 (13)81% (9)8% (23)0.98 (60)
FAU Defense1254% (111)49% (127) - - - - .25 (133)3.07 (103)86% (133)9% (89)1.09 (122)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1348% (47)38% (14) - - - - .02 (22)2.63 (20)79% (120)11% (42)1.06 (112)
FAU Offense1236% (135)40% (97)29.5105.23.613 (99).04 (108)2.76 (104)77% (30)10% (91)1.04 (40)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1348% (80)46% (28)20.731.2275.68.913.333 (8)11 (60).48 (6)1.7 (14)29% (24)30% (75).43 (25)6% (81)2.3 (4)
FAU Defense1245% (26)42% (76) - - - - - - 3.31 (96)1.6 (80)29% (114)29% (59).38 (108)5% (110)2.2 (117)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (94)38% (37) - - - - - - 14 (6).17 (33)1.6 (67)37% (5)27% (34).23 (43)6% (81)2 (49)
FAU Offense1262% (4)43% (55)3248.4340.5710.628 (22)20 (134).33 (42)1.6 (49)34% (111)31% (64).39 (33)8% (125)2.1 (25)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 1.90  #57
South Florida's Offense Rating: 18.74  #32
South Florida's Defense Rating: 16.83  #85
2026 Talent Rating: 742.00  #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #83
South Florida's 2026 Expected Record: 9.3 - 2.7
South Florida's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.8  #80
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #59
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1  #97

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 513
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 1.90   Florida Atlantic: -4.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -2.8   Florida Atlantic: -7.1




Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -4.295  #105
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 11.46  #105
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 17.96  #100
2026 Talent Rating: 534.00  #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #83
Florida Atlantic's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Florida Atlantic's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.1  #94
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #60
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 513
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 36
Florida Atlantic 32


Projected Total Points: 68
Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.2
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.5

Florida Atlantic's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18South Florida48Florida Atlantic13South Florida -20.5South Florida72.5Under
202411/01Florida Atlantic21South Florida44South Florida -1.5South Florida48.0Over
202310/14South Florida14Florida Atlantic56South Florida -3Florida Atlantic61.0Over
201309/14South Florida10Florida Atlantic28South Florida -10.5Florida Atlantic0
201010/02South Florida31Florida Atlantic3
200710/06Florida Atlantic23South Florida35
200208/29South Florida51Florida Atlantic10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida Atlantic222 Overs
South Florida521 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 41 - 31 - 20 - 1
Road Teams4 - 33 - 11 - 02 - 1

(#57) USF at (#105) FAU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFFAU
Game ControlGC #45 #117
Momentum ControlMC #46 #126
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #57 #105
SP+SP+ #80 #94
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #62 #96
Blue ChipsBC% #83 #83
South Florida Notes
(2/26) Vibes: Unclear, but will step back from LY
(2/26) QB Van Buren is most exp'd of 4 portal adds
(2/26) RB Isaac back, 2 prod FCS adds. Some depth
(2/26) WR Odom (UTEP)/Reuben decent duo, have depth
(2/26) OL has 7 w starting exp, 6 are portals. Have depth
(2/26) Def F7 very light on exp/prod. Big pass rush ?
(2/26) DBs have exp but grade out poorly. 9 portal adds
(2/26) 41 portals, 16 croots = 57 new on roster
(2/24) New era w Hartline. First time outside Columbus
(2/12) What does a Hartline Off look like w/o Day (OSU)
South Florida Injury Report
Florida Atlantic Notes
(2/28) Vibes: Off should be fun, Def must improve
(2/28) QB Veltkamp back, good but way too many TOs
(2/28) RB meh, 2 DII portals, don't see much here
(2/28) WR great, Messer a star, Henry+Garcia good trio
(2/28) OL 5 starters including 3 of 4 portals. Decent
(2/28) Front 7 has a ton of exp, but not great prod
(2/28) DBs also lots of exp but meh. Theme of Def
Florida Atlantic Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffFAU Def
Game ControlGC #57 #112
Momentum ControlMC #21 #127
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #21 #121
ExplosiveExp #28 #100
PPAPPA #12 #123
PowerPwr #32 #100
SP+SP+ #59 #120
Pts POPPO #17 #132
HavocHav #45 #106
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffFAU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #127
Run ExplRExp #60 #122
PPAExp #38 #133
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #13 #103
Stuff RateStuff #10 #122
TackleTak - NR
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffFAU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #76
Pass ExplPExl #14 #80
PPAExp #6 #96
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #89
DB HavocDB #81 #110
Florida Atlantic on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCatFAU OffUSF Def
Game ControlGC #117 #38
Momentum ControlMC #101 #68
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #80 #21
ExplosiveExp #7 #107
PPAPPA #43 #20
PowerPwr #105 #85
SP+SP+ #60 #97
Pts POPPO #93 #28
HavocHav #111 #59
Florida Atlantic Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCat
FAU OffUSF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #97 #14
Run ExplRExp #40 #112
PPAExp #108 #22
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #104 #20
Stuff RateStuff #52 #17
TackleTak - NR
Florida Atlantic Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
CategoryCatFAU OffUSF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #55 #37
Pass ExplPExl #49 #67
PPAExp #42 #33
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #91 #42
DB HavocDB #125 #81
Program Comparison
FAU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

USF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
South Florida beat Florida Atlantic last year (48-13)
South Florida beat Florida Atlantic in 2024 (44-21)
Florida Atlantic beat South Florida in 2023 (56-14)

  
USF's OC Tim Beck* (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
KJ Cooper (Tr)15124462%14971156.1
Michael Van Buren Jr. (Tr)9415162%1010826.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
D.J. Crowther (Tr)191929104.967
Jason Collins Jr. (Tr)9436353.923
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
KJ Cooper (Tr)7224333.423
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Kenny Odom (Tr)6258269.474
Mudia Reuben36495513.860
Armani Winfield (Tr)22276212.549
Arhmad Branch (Tr)14212215.149

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Josh Aldridge (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)744013
Tavin Ward602002
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)371013
Zavier Hamilton373000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Shamar Meikle (Tr)286240
Marshon Oxley (Tr)155211
Michael Williams II192110
Ryan Jenkins121100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ayden Jackson (Tr)744013
Za'Quan Bryan (Tr)371013
Tavin Ward602002

FAU's OC Zach Kittley (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Caden Veltkamp34551467%365224177.1
Drew Devillier (Tr)102148%123105.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaden Shields-Dutton8346065.550
RJ Garcia II (Tr)261030.538
Easton Messer351117.039
Caden Veltkamp814540.618
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Easton Messer1001029610.355
Dom Henry40575414.490
RJ Garcia II (Tr)27283010.528
Antonio Johnson (Tr)20231511.630

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

FAU's DC Brett Dewhurst (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leon Hart Jr.835201
Khmari Johnson413020
Jayden Sweeney412034
Gavench Marcelin321111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Crable (Tr)288644
Deshaun Batiste234430
Josh Roberts225320
Wilky Denaud295300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jayden Sweeney412034
Damarius McGhee300004
Jay Crable (Tr)288644