San Diego State at Toledo - 2026 Matchup Preview
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San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rockets

Toledo logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH

 
Aztecs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 3.6 (#48)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 4)
TOL 3rd straight Home Game
TOL is playing their 4th straight game
SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -1.5  (SP+ SDSU -0.5)

Projected Score: SDSU: 22 - TOL: 23 (45)
TOL Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
SDSU Travel: 1929 miles, 3 hrs behind
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#8)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
San Diego State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5San Diego State vs Portland State-28
Sat 9/12San Diego State at UCLA+3.5
Sat 9/19San Diego State vs James Madison-2
Sat 9/26San Diego State at Toledo+1.5
Sat 10/3San Diego State vs Texas State-4.5
Sat 10/10San Diego State at Oregon State-14
Sat 10/17San Diego State vs Fresno State-5.5
Sat 10/24San Diego State at Colorado State-15
Sat 10/31San Diego State vs Washington State-8.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/14San Diego State vs Utah State-13.5
Sat 11/21San Diego State at Boise State+0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Toledo at Michigan State-4
Sat 9/12Toledo vs Central Connecticut-27.5
Sat 9/19Toledo vs Temple-11
Sat 9/26Toledo vs San Diego State-1.5
Sat 10/3Toledo at Ball State-23.5
Sat 10/10Toledo vs Buffalo-15.5
Sat 10/17Toledo at Eastern Michigan-13
Sat 10/24Toledo vs Western Michigan-10
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Toledo at Sacramento State-6.5
Wed 11/11Toledo vs Massachusetts-32
Wed 11/18Toledo vs Bowling Green-17.5
Fri 11/27Toledo at Ohio-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU#93 (.13)42% (76)26.446% (40)3.34 (10)19936% (121)1583.51 (90)#4 (-.01)35% (10)15.438% (24)33% (4)2.42 (3)55.91.21.4
TOL#63 (.18)44% (53)30.843% (70)2.91 (73)17844% (40)2383.86 (55)#2 (-.07)33% (4)13.339% (29)28% (1)2.45 (4)74.61.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SDSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Offense1326.418.241.8%3.511.2183561991584.861%37%46%36%13%.13
TOL Defense1313.37.733.3%2.451.6 - - - - - 52%45%39%28%20%-.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SDSU Defense1315.418.335.1%2.421.4 - - - - - 48%50%38%33%15%-.01
TOL Offense1330.845.843.6%3.861.2214161782384.949%49%43%44%13%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
San Diego State1330:1717.931%52%6.255.91.21.44.82.5531.7
Toledo1330:2621.240%24%8.574.61.21.67.12.8331.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense1361% (9)46% (40)41.8198.94.825 (70).17 (43)3.34 (10)80% (16)7% (22)0.9 (94)
TOL Defense1352% (98)39% (29) - - - - -.01 (13)2.36 (7)67% (39)13% (7)0.87 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense1348% (46)38% (24) - - - - .06 (43)3.04 (99)63% (15)8% (113)0.96 (70)
TOL Offense1349% (69)43% (70)36.2177.74.922 (40).12 (64)2.91 (73)78% (27)9% (53)0.9 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense1337% (128)36% (121)12.822.3157.97.112.410 (106)10 (7).09 (127)1.7 (20)30% (41)20% (136).04 (132)6% (48)1.9 (88)
TOL Defense1345% (30)28% (1) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.08 (1)1.6 (108)35% (22)19% (1)-.01 (1)7% (15)2.2 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense1350% (90)33% (4) - - - - - - 15 (55)-.04 (2)1.4 (16)35% (17)23% (6).06 (3)7% (22)1.8 (14)
TOL Offense1349% (66)44% (40)19.730.7238.17.812.127 (22)10 (60).28 (55)1.6 (62)32% (71)29% (79).2 (112)4% (11)1.9 (115)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: 3.60  #52
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 16.63  #57
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 13.02  #46
2026 Talent Rating: 651.00  #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
San Diego State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 3.6
San Diego State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #42
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #28

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 3.60   Toledo: 6.415

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: 6.7   Toledo: 6.0




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 6.415  #59
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.75  #68
Toledo's Defense Rating: 13.92  #56
2026 Talent Rating: 544.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 125  #81
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0  #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 23
San Diego State 22


Projected Total Points: 45
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202209/24San Diego State17Toledo14Toledo -2.5San Diego State44.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo000 Overs
San Diego State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#52) SDSU at (#59) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSDSUTOL
Game ControlGC #13 #69
Momentum ControlMC #37 #22
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #52 #59
SP+SP+ #42 #48
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #70 #93
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #81
San Diego State Notes
(3/8) Vibes: Lewis era rising, NIL funding is up
(3/1) QB Denegal back but he ain't it. Depth overtake?
(3/1) RB Sutton great (1.3K) very good depth. Strong
(3/1) WR 3 portals, Napier good/back, have options
(3/1) OL 6 portals, 5 fair to good starters, have depth
(3/1) DL has avg prod but good rotation of 6 exp'd guys
(3/1) LB replacing nearly all from a great Def LY
(3/1) DBs 7 portals, some really prod FCS adds.
(3/1) New DC Sumler (DB LY) has big shoes to fill
San Diego State Injury Report
Toledo Notes
(2/6) HC Jacobs (Mercer) is 94-23 as a head coach
(2/6) OC Reisert was HC @ Gard Webb, DC from Mercer
(2/6) QB Khamoni Robinson from Lenoir-Rhyne as QB1?
(2/6) Jacobs brought 13 portals from Mercer w him
(2/6) RB CJ Miller (Mer) exp'd, there's depth here
(2/6) WR has parts, Dabbs (Mer) really productive
(2/6) OL has 6 w good exp & prod, 3 are FCS portals
(2/6) DTs light and inexp'd. DEs have played, but ?
(2/6) LB corp looks good, although depth is green
(2/6) DBs no clue, top 2 are FCS, not much exp after
Toledo Injury Report
San Diego State on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffTOL Def
Game ControlGC #11 #31
Momentum ControlMC #78 #16
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #76 #4
ExplosiveExp #112 #22
PPAPPA #93 #2
PowerPwr #57 #56
SP+SP+ #90 #21
Pts POPPO #90 #4
HavocHav #25 #5
San Diego State Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #40 #29
Run ExplRExp #94 #22
PPAExp #43 #13
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #10 #7
Stuff RateStuff #14 #27
TackleTak - NR
San Diego State Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #121 #1
Pass ExplPExl #20 #108
PPAExp #127 #1
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #22 #7
DB HavocDB #48 #15
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffSDSU Def
Game ControlGC #100 #25
Momentum ControlMC #41 #11
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #53 #10
ExplosiveExp #76 #23
PPAPPA #63 #4
PowerPwr #68 #46
SP+SP+ #75 #28
Pts POPPO #55 #3
HavocHav #22 #78
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffSDSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #24
Run ExplRExp #95 #70
PPAExp #64 #43
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #73 #99
Stuff RateStuff #86 #109
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #4
Pass ExplPExl #62 #16
PPAExp #55 #2
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #53 #113
DB HavocDB #11 #22
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jayden Denegal14324459%1810987.4
Bert Emanuel Jr.91656%74004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lucky Sutton2531292105.150
Christian Washington9756045.841
Bert Emanuel Jr.3227328.572
Jayden Denegal6710341.529
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Napier48632213.280
Aldrich Doe (Tr)37467212.635
Javion Kinnard (Tr)18228112.779
Nathan Acevedo16190011.942

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Demetrius Sumler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen Thomeson (Tr)867021
Dalesean Staley701008
Tano Letuli270021
Amari Comier193111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Djibril Abdou Rahman (Tr)51111
Amari Comier193111
Kai Wallin (Tr)172141
Solomon Davis (Tr)61100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dalesean Staley701008
Brady Nassar140043
Krishna Clay151011

TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Alan Richter172568%153316.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Miller (Tr)168953145.779
Connor Walendzak329903.111
Michael Drennen II96006.715
Dane Nauman94004.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Adjatay Dabbs (Tr)45856819.084
Kalvin Gilbert46653714.265
CJ Miller (Tr)26314312.159
Peyton Strickland2422649.465

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Langston Long335000
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
Isaac Prince53100
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Dylan Hohler71011
Donovan Watkins (Tr)20001