NC State at Louisville - 2018 Matchup Preview

NC State Wolfpack at Louisville Cardinals(#20)

Saturday, November 17th 2018 (12:20 PM EST)
NC State -16 (65.0)
NC State 52 - Louisville: 10 (ACC)

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (34 - 30 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

LOU is playing their 4th straight game
NCST is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -7 (SP+ NCST -18.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 40 - LOU: 30 (70)
NCST Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
NCST Travel: 422 miles

Cardinals (2 - 10) (1 - 10 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 44 (23 - 40 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	NC State vs James Madison	-14.5	56.5	W 24 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/8	NC State vs Georgia State	-25.0	56.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/22	NC State at Marshall	-6.0	56.0	W 37 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/29	NC State vs Virginia	-5.5	52.5	W 35 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/6	NC State vs Boston College	-6.5	60.5	W 28 - 23	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/20	NC State at Clemson	+17.5	58.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/27	NC State at Syracuse	-2.0	65.0	L 41 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/3	NC State vs Florida State	-9.5	52.0	W 47 - 28	O	Y
Thu 11/8	NC State vs Wake Forest	-17.0	69.0	L 23 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/17	NC State at Louisville	-16.0	65.0	W 52 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/24	NC State at North Carolina	-7.5	61.5	W 34 - 28	O	N
Sat 12/1	NC State vs East Carolina	-24.5	59.5	W 58 - 3	O	Y
Mon 12/31	NC State vs Texas A&M	+7.5	58.5	L 13 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Louisville's 2018 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/1	Louisville vs Alabama	+23.5	60.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/8	Louisville vs Indiana State	-19
Sat 9/15	Louisville vs Western Kentucky	-24.5	53.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/22	Louisville at Virginia	+4.5	51.5	L 3 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/29	Louisville vs Florida State	+4.5	47.5	L 24 - 28	O	Y
Fri 10/5	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	+5.5	56.0	L 31 - 66	O	N
Sat 10/13	Louisville at Boston College	+11.0	56.5	L 20 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/27	Louisville vs Wake Forest	-3.0	68.0	L 35 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/3	Louisville at Clemson	+38.0	61.0	L 16 - 77	O	N
Fri 11/9	Louisville at Syracuse	+20.0	68.5	L 23 - 54	O	N
Sat 11/17	Louisville vs NC State	+16.0	65.0	L 10 - 52	U	N
Sat 11/24	Louisville vs Kentucky	+17.0	53.0	L 10 - 56	O	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	.22	49%	33.8	44%	2.44	130	52%	286	4.09	.18	43%	24.9	42%	42%	3.31	42.8	1.3	1.3
LOU	.08	41%	19.8	43%	2.67	142	37%	211	2.79	.32	52%	44.1	53%	48%	4.47	66.5	2.1	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
LOU	#15 (.31)	46% (26)		48% (20)	3.09 (56)	173	45% (30)	251	4.27 (31)	#73 (.18)	40% (49)		40% (44)	40% (65)	3.98 (87)	46.1	0.8	1.2

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	33.8	34.2	49.1%	4.09	1.3	22	416	130	286	3.8	46%	51%	44%	52%	15%	.22
LOU Defense	12	44.1	40.3	52.1%	4.47	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	61%	38%	53%	48%	9%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	24.9	30	43%	3.31	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	42%	56%	42%	42%	18%	.18
LOU Offense	12	19.8	23	40.8%	2.79	2.1	17	353	142	211	4.2	47%	52%	43%	37%	19%	.08

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	30:36	22.1	45%	59%	4.5	42.8	1.3	1.3	6.4	2.7	1	29.7
Louisville	12	27:16	17.1	37%	36%	7.6	66.5	2.1	1.1	3.4	0.9	2	27.5

Run Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	46%	44%	34.5	130.3	3.8	24	.02	2.44	69%	10%	0.85
LOU Defense	12	61%	53%	-	-	-	-	.26	3.3	88%	6%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	42%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.81	72%	11%	0.9
LOU Offense	12	47%	43%	33.6	141.5	4.2	18	.05	2.67	61%	14%	0.9

Pass Game Stats (2018)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	51%	52%	23.3	34.8	285.9	8.2	12.3	21	10	.44	1.5	29%	44%	.44	6%	1.6
LOU Defense	12	38%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.6	27%	37%	.44	3%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	56%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.27	1.6	34%	38%	.46	7%	1.9
LOU Offense	12	52%	37%	17.5	32.8	211.1	6.5	12.1	10	15	.11	1.4	36%	28%	.18	6%	1.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: NR
NC State's Offense Rating: NR
NC State's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
NC State's 2018 Expected Record: -
NC State's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #35
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1 #29
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: Louisville: -2.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Louisville: -9.1

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: -2.05 NR
Louisville's Offense Rating: NR
Louisville's Defense Rating: NR
2018 Talent Rating: #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Louisville's 2018 Expected Record: -
Louisville's 2018 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #98
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #101
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 33.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 24.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30

NC State's 2018 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 40
Louisville 30

Total Points: 70

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 41
Louisville 35

Total Points: 77

Based on Entire Season
NC State 38
Louisville 24

Total Points: 62

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 23
Defense: 44.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 40.3

Louisville's 2018 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 1 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/29	NC State	10	Louisville	13	Louisville -3.5	NC State	56.5	Under
2022	11/19	Louisville	25	NC State	10	Louisville -4	Louisville	43.0	Under
2021	10/30	NC State	28	Louisville	13	NC State -6	NC State	57.0	Under
2019	11/16	NC State	20	Louisville	34	Louisville -4.5	Louisville	52.0	Over
2018	11/17	Louisville	10	NC State	52	NC State -16	NC State	65.0	Under
2017	10/05	NC State	39	Louisville	25	Louisville -3.5	NC State	67.0	Under
2016	10/22	Louisville	54	NC State	13	Louisville -20	Louisville	65.0	Over
2015	10/03	NC State	13	Louisville	20	NC State -5	Louisville	47.5	Under
2014	10/18	Louisville	30	NC State	18	Louisville -14.5	NC State	0
2011	12/27	NC State	31	Louisville	24
2007	09/29	NC State	10	Louisville	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	7	4	2 Overs
NC State	4	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	5 - 4	3 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 6	4 - 5	2 - 2	2 - 3

(#) NCST at (#) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#35	#98
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#41	#40
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

NC State Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#29	#99
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#101	#54
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Average G5

NCST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'18 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 39° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 12
NC State 16.0 (65.0)
NC State won at Louisville this year (52-10)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat NC State in 2023 (13-10)
Louisville beat NC State in 2022 (25-10)

NCST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

LOU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD