Sat, Nov 21 2026
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
UNLV✈ 380 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
UNLV
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
UNLV entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
UNLV wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
UNLV wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UNLV
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
UNLV 2026 Schedule
UNLV's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | UNLV vs Memphis | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/5 | UNLV at Hawai'i | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | UNLV at North Texas | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | UNLV at Akron | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | UNLV vs California | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | UNLV vs North Dakota State | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | UNLV at Air Force | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | UNLV vs Northern Illinois | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | UNLV vs Wyoming | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | UNLV at New Mexico | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | UNLV at San José State | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | UNLV vs Nevada | -22 | — | — | — | — |
San José State 2026 Schedule
San José State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | San José State at USC | +31.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/4 | San José State at Eastern Michigan | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | San José State vs Cal Poly | -6 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | San José State vs Fresno State | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/3 | San José State at Hawai'i | +17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | San José State vs Wyoming | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | San José State at UTEP | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | San José State at Nevada | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | San José State vs New Mexico | +15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | San José State vs Northern Illinois | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | San José State at Air Force | +16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | San José State vs UNLV | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | San José State vs North Dakota State | +15 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UNLV
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +12.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
UNLV
Dan Mullen #49
10–4 (71%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Corey Dennis
Yr 2
#46
DC
Paul Guenther
Yr 1
#68
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #54
10–15 (40%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Craig Stutzmann
Yr 3
#136
DC
Bojay Filimoeatu
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓