Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas, NV
·
Turf
·
65,000 cap
California✈ 2,768 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors California,
while Game Control favors UNLV.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
California wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
UNLV wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UNLV
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
California 2026 Schedule
California's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | California vs UCLA | -3.5 | 53.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | California at Syracuse | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | California vs Wagner | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/25 | California vs Clemson | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | California at UNLV | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | California vs Virginia Tech | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | California vs Wake Forest | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/23 | California at SMU | +13 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | California at NC State | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/14 | California at Virginia | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | California vs Stanford | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | California vs Pittsburgh | +2 | — | — | — | — |
UNLV 2026 Schedule
UNLV's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | UNLV vs Memphis | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/5 | UNLV at Hawai'i | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | UNLV at North Texas | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | UNLV at Akron | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | UNLV vs California | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | UNLV vs North Dakota State | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | UNLV at Air Force | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | UNLV vs Northern Illinois | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | UNLV vs Wyoming | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | UNLV at New Mexico | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | UNLV at San José State | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | UNLV vs Nevada | -23 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UNLV
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
California Edge
California +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +0.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
California
Tosh Lupoi #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jordan Somerville
Yr 1
#67
DC
Michael Hutchings
Yr 1
#68
UNLV
Dan Mullen #49
10–4 (71%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Corey Dennis
Yr 2
#46
DC
Paul Guenther
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓