Sat, Oct 10 2026
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
·
Turf
·
23,595 cap
Air Force✈ 867 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Northern Illinois
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Northern Illinois entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Northern Illinois wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Northern Illinois wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Air Force
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Air Force 2026 Schedule
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Air Force vs Duquesne | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Air Force vs North Dakota State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | Air Force at Nevada | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Air Force vs Navy | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Air Force at Northern Illinois | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Air Force vs UNLV | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Air Force at Wyoming | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Air Force vs UConn | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Air Force at Army | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Air Force vs San José State | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Air Force vs UTEP | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Air Force at New Mexico | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
Northern Illinois 2026 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Northern Illinois at Iowa | +31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Northern Illinois vs Illinois State | -6 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Northern Illinois at Arizona | +29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Northern Illinois at Georgia State | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Northern Illinois vs Air Force | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Northern Illinois at Wyoming | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Northern Illinois vs Hawai'i | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Northern Illinois at UNLV | +23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Northern Illinois at San José State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Northern Illinois vs Nevada | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Northern Illinois at North Dakota State | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Northern Illinois vs UTEP | -2 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northern Illinois Edge
Northern Illinois +2.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #107
139–97 (59%)
· Yr 20 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 3
#113
DC
Brian Knorr
Yr 3
#101
Northern Illinois
Rob Harley #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Quinn Sanders
Yr 1
#67
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 1
#130
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓