Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Northwestern,
while Game Control favors Iowa.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Northwestern wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Iowa wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa 2026 Schedule
Iowa's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Iowa vs Northern Illinois | -30 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Iowa vs Iowa State | -13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Iowa vs Northern Iowa | -31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Iowa at Michigan | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Iowa vs Ohio State | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Iowa at Washington | +6 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/24 | Iowa at Minnesota | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Iowa vs Wisconsin | -14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Iowa at Northwestern | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Iowa vs Purdue | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Iowa at Illinois | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Iowa vs Nebraska | -9 | — | — | — | — |
Northwestern 2026 Schedule
Northwestern's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Northwestern vs South Dakota State | -25.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/19 | Northwestern vs Colorado | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Northwestern at Indiana | +25.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/2 | Northwestern vs Penn State | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Northwestern vs Ball State | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Northwestern at Michigan State | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Northwestern vs Rutgers | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Northwestern at Oregon | +26.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Northwestern vs Iowa | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Northwestern at Ohio State | +29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Northwestern at Minnesota | +6 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Northwestern at Illinois | +9 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa Edge
Iowa +10.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #16
213–128 (63%)
· Yr 28 at school
OC
Tim Lester
Yr 3
#117
DC
Phil Parker
Yr 3
#1
Northwestern
David Braun #119
19–19 (50%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Chip Kelly
Yr 1
#13
DC
Tim McGarigle
Yr 3
#62
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓