Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,232 cap
Baylor✈ 872 mi-2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Arizona State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arizona State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Arizona State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Baylor 2026 Schedule
Baylor's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Baylor vs Auburn | +7.5 | 58.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Baylor vs Prairie View A&M | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Baylor vs Louisiana Tech | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Baylor vs Colorado | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Baylor at Arizona State | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Baylor vs TCU | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Baylor at Kansas | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Baylor at UCF | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Baylor vs Iowa State | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Baylor at BYU | +13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Baylor vs Texas Tech | +22.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Baylor at Houston | +8 | — | — | — | — |
Arizona State 2026 Schedule
Arizona State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Arizona State vs Morgan State | -28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Arizona State at Texas A&M | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Arizona State vs Kansas | -6 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/3 | Arizona State vs Baylor | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Arizona State vs Hawai'i | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Arizona State at Texas Tech | +24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Arizona State vs Kansas State | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Arizona State at BYU | +10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Arizona State vs Colorado | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Arizona State at UCF | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Arizona State vs Oklahoma State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Arizona State at Arizona | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +0.62
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Baylor
Dave Aranda #100
36–37 (49%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Jake Spavital
Yr 3
#48
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 1
#25
Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham #13
22–16 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Marcus Arroyo
Yr 3
#63
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 3
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓