Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors UTEP,
while Game Control favors Delaware.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
UTEP wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Delaware wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Delaware -4.5
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Delaware
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTEP 2025 Schedule
UTEP's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | UTEP at Utah State | +3.5L16–28 | 59.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | UTEP vs UT Martin | -7.5W42–17 | 49.5 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | UTEP at Texas | +39.5L10–27 | 52.5 | L10–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | UTEP vs UL Monroe | -5.5L25–31 | 47.5 | L25–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/27 | UTEP vs Louisiana Tech | +3.5L11–30 | 48.5 | L11–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/8 | UTEP vs Liberty | +1.5L8–19 | 46.5 | L8–19 | U | N |
| Wed 10/15 | UTEP vs Sam Houston | -3.5W35–17 | 46.5 | W35–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/28 | UTEP at Kennesaw State | +12.5L20–33 | 53.5 | L20–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | UTEP vs Jacksonville State | +1.5L27–30 | 46.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | UTEP at Missouri State | +6.5L24–38 | 47.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | UTEP vs New Mexico State | -4.0L31–34 | 44.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | UTEP at Delaware | +4.5L31–61 | 55.5 | L31–61 | O | N |
Delaware 2025 Schedule
Delaware's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Delaware vs Delaware State | -30.5W35–17 | 55.5 | W35–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Delaware at Colorado | +23.5L7–31 | 49.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Delaware vs UConn | +8.5W44–41 | 52.5 | W44–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/20 | Delaware at Florida International | +4.0W38–16 | 54.5 | W38–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/3 | Delaware vs Western Kentucky | -2.5L24–27 | 62.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/15 | Delaware at Jacksonville State | -3.0L25–38 | 55.5 | L25–38 | O | N |
| Wed 10/22 | Delaware vs Middle Tennessee | -9.5W31–28 | 55.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/1 | Delaware at Liberty | +3.5L30–59 | 52.5 | L30–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Delaware vs Louisiana Tech | +5.5W25–24 | 57.5 | W25–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Delaware vs Sam Houston | -11.5L23–26 | 56.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Delaware at Wake Forest | +17.5L14–52 | 49.5 | L14–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/29 | Delaware vs UTEP | -4.5W61–31 | 55.5 | W61–31 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/17 | Delaware vs Louisiana | +1.5W20–13 | 60.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Delaware
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
UTEP Edge
UTEP +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Delaware Edge
Delaware +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Delaware
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Delaware
86.7 — 5.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Delaware won by 30
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
3–9 (25%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mark Cala
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bobby Daly
Yr 1
#1
Delaware
Ryan Carty #1
26–11 (70%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Terence Archer
Yr 2
#1
DC
Manny Rojas
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓