Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2024 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2023 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Maryland wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Maryland -22.5
O/U 46.5
ESPN Bet
Villanova 2024 Schedule
Villanova's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Villanova at Maryland | +22.5L20–38 | 46.5 | L20–38 | O | Y |
Maryland 2024 Schedule
Maryland's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Maryland vs UConn | -19.0W50–7 | 45.5 | W50–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Maryland vs Michigan State | -7.5L24–27 | 44.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Maryland at Virginia | +2.5W27–13 | 55.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Maryland vs Villanova | -22.5W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Maryland at Indiana | +7.5L28–42 | 50.0 | L28–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/11 | Maryland vs Northwestern | -11.0L10–37 | 45.0 | L10–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Maryland vs USC | +6.5W29–28 | 56.5 | W29–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Maryland at Minnesota | +6.0L23–48 | 45.0 | L23–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Maryland at Oregon | +24.0L18–39 | 58.0 | L18–39 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Maryland vs Rutgers | -4.5L17–31 | 54.5 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Maryland vs Iowa | +4.0L13–29 | 40.5 | L13–29 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Maryland at Penn State | +26.5L7–44 | 50.5 | L7–44 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Villanova Edge
Villanova +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Maryland Edge
Maryland +47.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2023 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓