Sat, Sep 3 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Falcon Stadium
Colorado Springs, CO
·
Turf
·
46,692 cap
Northern Iowa✈ 691 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Air Force wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Air Force -14.5
O/U 46.5
consensus
Northern Iowa 2022 Schedule
Northern Iowa's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Northern Iowa at Air Force | +14.5L17–48 | 46.5 | L17–48 | O | N |
Air Force 2022 Schedule
Air Force's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Air Force vs Northern Iowa | -14.5W48–17 | 46.5 | W48–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Air Force vs Colorado | -17.5W41–10 | 50.0 | W41–10 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/16 | Air Force at Wyoming | -16.5L14–17 | 47.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Air Force vs Nevada | -24.0W48–20 | 47.0 | W48–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Air Force vs Navy | -14.0W13–10 | 38.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Air Force at Utah State | -11.5L27–34 | 54.0 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Air Force at UNLV | -10.0W42–7 | 50.0 | W42–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Air Force vs Boise State | -2.5L14–19 | 46.5 | L14–19 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Air Force vs Army | -7.0W13–7 | 40.5 | W13–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Air Force vs New Mexico | -21.0W35–3 | 37.5 | W35–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Air Force vs Colorado State | -22.0W24–12 | 43.0 | W24–12 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Air Force at San Diego State | -2.0W13–3 | 43.5 | W13–3 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/22 | Air Force vs Baylor | +3.5W30–15 | 42.0 | W30–15 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Iowa Edge
Northern Iowa +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +64.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓