Sat, Sep 17 2022
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Week 3
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🏟 Faurot Field
Columbia, MO
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Turf
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71,168 cap
Abilene Christian✈ 608 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Missouri -31.5
O/U 56.5
consensus
Abilene Christian 2022 Schedule
Abilene Christian's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | Abilene Christian at Missouri | +31.5L17–34 | 56.5 | L17–34 | U | Y |
Missouri 2022 Schedule
Missouri's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Missouri vs Louisiana Tech | -20.0W52–24 | 62.5 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Missouri at Kansas State | +7.0L12–40 | 52.5 | L12–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Missouri vs Abilene Christian | -31.5W34–17 | 56.5 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Missouri at Auburn | +7.5L14–17 | 51.0 | L14–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Missouri vs Georgia | +30.5L22–26 | 54.0 | L22–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Missouri at Florida | +11.0L17–24 | 53.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Missouri vs Vanderbilt | -14.0W17–14 | 49.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Missouri at South Carolina | +3.5W23–10 | 45.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Missouri vs Kentucky | -1.0L17–21 | 40.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Missouri at Tennessee | +18.5L24–66 | 57.5 | L24–66 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Missouri vs New Mexico State | -29.0W45–14 | 46.5 | W45–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Missouri vs Arkansas | +3.0W29–27 | 55.5 | W29–27 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/23 | Missouri vs Wake Forest | +3.0L17–27 | 59.0 | L17–27 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Abilene Christian Edge
Abilene Christian +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Abilene Christian Edge
Abilene Christian +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Missouri, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓