Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Wallace Wade Stadium
Durham, NC
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Duke -22.5
O/U 55.5
consensus
North Carolina A&T 2021 Schedule
North Carolina A&T's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 9/10 | North Carolina A&T at Duke | +22.5L17–45 | 55.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
Duke 2021 Schedule
Duke's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Duke at Charlotte | -6.0L28–31 | 60.0 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Fri 9/10 | Duke vs North Carolina A&T | -22.5W45–17 | 55.5 | W45–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Duke vs Northwestern | +2.5W30–23 | 50.0 | W30–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Duke vs Kansas | -16.5W52–33 | 57.5 | W52–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Duke at North Carolina | +19.5L7–38 | 74.0 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Duke vs Georgia Tech | +4.5L27–31 | 60.5 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Duke at Virginia | +10.5L0–48 | 69.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Duke at Wake Forest | +16.5L7–45 | 71.5 | L7–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Duke vs Pittsburgh | +21.0L29–54 | 64.5 | L29–54 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Duke at Virginia Tech | +13.5L17–48 | 50.5 | L17–48 | O | N |
| Thu 11/18 | Duke vs Louisville | +20.0L22–62 | 60.0 | L22–62 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Duke vs Miami | +20.5L10–47 | 67.0 | L10–47 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Carolina A&T Edge
North Carolina A&T +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Carolina A&T Edge
North Carolina A&T +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Duke
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Duke
85.8 — 3.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Duke won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Duke, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓