Ball State at Massachusetts - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Ball State Cardinals at Massachusetts Minutemen

Massachusetts logo
Wednesday, November 4th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - Hadley, MA  (Mid-American)

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.6 - 9.4 (#111)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
BALL coming off BYE
UMASS coming off BYE
Our Line: Ball State -7.5  (SP+ BALL -13.5)

Projected Score: BALL: 28 - UMASS: 20 (48)
BALL Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 684 miles
Minutemen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 12)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1.3 - 10.7 (#117)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Ball State at Ohio State+38
Sat 9/12Ball State vs Stony Brook-1
Sat 9/19Ball State at Liberty+19
Sat 9/26Ball State at Kent State+7
Sat 10/3Ball State vs Toledo+23.5
Sat 10/10Ball State at Northwestern+27.5
Sat 10/17Ball State at Bowling Green+13.5
Sat 10/24Ball State vs Sacramento State+15
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Ball State at Massachusetts-7.5
Wed 11/11Ball State vs Buffalo+10.5
Tue 11/17Ball State at Ohio+17.5
Sat 11/28Ball State vs Central Michigan+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Massachusetts's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Massachusetts at Rutgers+30.5
Sat 9/12Massachusetts vs Sacred Heart+8.5
Sat 9/19Massachusetts vs Stonehill+8.5
Sat 9/26Massachusetts at Sacramento State+29
Sat 10/3Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan+18
Sat 10/10Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+28
Sat 10/17Massachusetts at Buffalo+25.5
Sat 10/24Massachusetts at UConn+31
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Massachusetts vs Ball State+7.5
Wed 11/11Massachusetts at Toledo+32
Wed 11/18Massachusetts vs Akron+16.5
Sat 11/28Massachusetts at Bowling Green+23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (133)1382.71 (132)#79 (.18)44% (106)29.847% (112)44% (97)3.57 (59)38.81.31.1
UMASS#135 (-.01)34% (134)11.133% (136)2.05 (136)8234% (129)1652.17 (136)#133 (.28)48% (130)38.649% (129)48% (129)4.64 (134)41.41.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1215.89.732.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-
UMASS Defense1238.634.748%4.640.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%9%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1229.835.744.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
UMASS Offense1211.112.833.7%2.171.316248821652.845%54%33%34%20%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Massachusetts1226:5615.531%23%5.241.41.30.83.31.1125.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1255% (28)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (111)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (23)
UMASS Defense1255% (126)49% (129) - - - - .2 (121)3.53 (136)77% (106)6% (136)0.84 (14)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1252% (99)47% (112) - - - - .16 (98)2.97 (83)63% (17)9% (99)1.03 (100)
UMASS Offense1245% (108)33% (136)29.382.42.86 (122)-.03 (129)2.05 (136)60% (127)13% (127)1.12 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1242% (112)31% (133)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (64)36% (132)22% (133).06 (130)5% (42)1.9 (89)
UMASS Defense1243% (12)48% (129) - - - - - - 4 (75).41 (128)1.6 (103)26% (134)33% (105).42 (120)3% (136)2 (76)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1246% (39)44% (97) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (93)1.6 (72)30% (101)32% (101).33 (89)5% (90)2 (64)
UMASS Offense1254% (26)34% (129)18.634.6165.14.88.98 (134)9 (88).02 (132)1.3 (135)38% (135)25% (119).14 (126)7% (110)2 (70)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -21.61  #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: 5.92  #132
Ball State's Defense Rating: 27.53  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.6 - 9.4
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -21.61   Massachusetts: -29.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0   Massachusetts: -36.6




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -29.68  #138
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 1.09  #138
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 29.09  #138
2026 Talent Rating: 354.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 250  #67
Massachusetts's 2026 Expected Record: 1.3 - 10.7
Massachusetts's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.6  #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.8  #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.8  #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Ball State 28
Massachusetts 20


Projected Total Points: 48
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201510/31Ball State20Massachusetts10Ball State -4Ball State67.5Under
201411/12Massachusetts24Ball State10UMass -3Massachusetts65.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts110 Overs
Ball State112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#137) BALL at (#138) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLUMASS
Game ControlGC #135 #136
Momentum ControlMC #74 #124
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #137 #138
SP+SP+ #132 #136
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #109 #130
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #67
Ball State Notes
(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report
Massachusetts Notes
(2/27) Vibes: Why bother. School deserves better
(2/27) 8 wins in 7 years (8-68), should not be FBS
(2/27) QB Watson (VT) vs Johnson (FAMU)... meh
(2/27) RB a stable of longshots with 2 portal adds
(2/27) WR could have upside w King (FCS), Matthews
(2/27) OL 6 w starting exp, 2 from FCS. Better than exp
(2/27) DL severely lacks size, talent. Have bros from IU?
(2/27) LB best unit on team, by far. 3 good starters
(2/27) DBs will be bad, likely really bad.
Massachusetts Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffUMASS Def
Game ControlGC #135 #136
Momentum ControlMC #127 #117
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #136 #130
ExplosiveExp #38 #24
PPAPPA #134 #133
PowerPwr #132 #138
SP+SP+ #134 #136
Pts POPPO #132 #134
HavocHav #135 #136
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffUMASS Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #129
Run ExplRExp #23 #14
PPAExp #111 #121
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #130 #136
Stuff RateStuff #123 #136
TackleTak - NR
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #129
Pass ExplPExl #64 #103
PPAExp #136 #128
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #136 #136
DB HavocDB #42 #136
Massachusetts on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUMASS OffBALL Def
Game ControlGC #136 #133
Momentum ControlMC #135 #38
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #134 #106
ExplosiveExp #78 #70
PPAPPA #135 #79
PowerPwr #138 #137
SP+SP+ #136 #115
Pts POPPO #136 #59
HavocHav #131 #105
Massachusetts Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffBALL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #112
Run ExplRExp #12 #100
PPAExp #129 #98
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #136 #83
Stuff RateStuff #136 #41
TackleTak - NR
Massachusetts Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUMASS OffBALL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #129 #97
Pass ExplPExl #135 #72
PPAExp #132 #93
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #127 #99
DB HavocDB #110 #90
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Horton6018003.013
Jalen Bonds277712.915
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)197503.99
Elijah Jackson81702.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)22393317.975
Donovan Hamilton20244012.247
Jabari Smith15166311.137
TJ Horton157114.719

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Tobi Adewoyin140000
Ameir Glenn133100
Deondre Shepherd131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100
Jared Badie (Tr)82140
Ben Marsh72100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100

UMASS's OC Max Warner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
RJ Johnson III (Tr)17626566%21861648.2
William Watson III (Tr)2450%770019.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Washington (Tr)8634034.024
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)3519725.637
RJ Johnson III (Tr)5713932.426
Elijah Faulkner4011402.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randall King (Tr)59689511.777
Devin Matthews (Tr)36649718.059
Jordan Washington (Tr)2220219.260
Max Dowling20199310.077

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Zeraun Daniel753002
Timmy Hinspeter694222
Kendall Bournes582000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Timmy Hinspeter694222
William Depaepe (Tr)21100
Tyler Martin973002
Kezion Dia-Johnson30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon (Tr)242005
Tyler Martin973002
Timmy Hinspeter694222