Miami (OH) at Massachusetts - 2026 Matchup Preview
Miami (OH) logo

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Massachusetts Minutemen

Massachusetts logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - Hadley, MA  (Mid-American)

 
RedHawks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (72 - 74)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (20 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
UMASS 2nd straight Home Game
UMASS is playing their 6th straight game
M-OH is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Miami (OH) -28  (SP+ M-OH -33)
Projected Score: M-OH: 37 - UMASS: 9 (46)
M-OH Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
M-OH Travel: 666 miles
Minutemen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 12)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (13 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 1.3 - 10.7 (#117)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh+12.5————
Sat 9/12Miami (OH) vs Holy Cross-22————
Sat 9/19Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+5.5————
Sat 9/26Miami (OH) vs UConn-0————
Sat 10/3Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-12.5————
Sat 10/10Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-28————
Sat 10/17Miami (OH) vs Akron-14————
Sat 10/24Miami (OH) at Central Michigan-3————
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-10.5————
Tue 11/10Miami (OH) vs Ohio-8.5————
Tue 11/17Miami (OH) at Kent State-14————
Tue 11/24Miami (OH) at Western Michigan+0.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Massachusetts's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Massachusetts at Rutgers+30.5————
Sat 9/12Massachusetts vs Sacred Heart+8.5————
Sat 9/19Massachusetts vs Stonehill+8.5————
Sat 9/26Massachusetts at Sacramento State+29————
Sat 10/3Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan+18————
Sat 10/10Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+28————
Sat 10/17Massachusetts at Buffalo+25.5————
Sat 10/24Massachusetts at UConn+31————
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Massachusetts vs Ball State+7.5————
Wed 11/11Massachusetts at Toledo+32————
Wed 11/18Massachusetts vs Akron+16.5————
Sat 11/28Massachusetts at Bowling Green+23.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH#107 (.1)39% (106)23.543% (82)3.14 (33)15136% (119)1873.34 (107)#29 (.08)39% (36)21.739% (35)40% (52)3.39 (45)49.11.11.4
UMASS#135 (-.01)34% (134)11.133% (136)2.05 (136)8234% (129)1652.17 (136)#133 (.28)48% (130)38.649% (129)48% (129)4.64 (134)41.41.30.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Offense1423.519.839.2%3.341.1183381511874.352%47%43%36%13%.1
UMASS Defense1238.634.748%4.640.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%9%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
M-OH Defense1421.721.239.1%3.391.4 - - - - - 49%49%39%40%18%.08
UMASS Offense1211.112.833.7%2.171.316248821652.845%54%33%34%20%-.01

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami (OH)1429:4817.635%42%5.649.11.11.45.82.9331.4
Massachusetts1226:5615.531%23%5.241.41.30.83.31.1125.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Offense1452% (48)43% (82)35.1150.84.317 (78).07 (93)3.14 (33)66% (105)7% (14)0.87 (113)
UMASS Defense1255% (126)49% (129) - - - - .2 (121)3.53 (136)77% (106)6% (136)0.84 (14)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
M-OH Defense1449% (58)39% (35) - - - - .05 (40)2.71 (34)73% (87)11% (34)0.92 (48)
UMASS Offense1245% (108)33% (136)29.382.42.86 (122)-.03 (129)2.05 (136)60% (127)13% (127)1.12 (12)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Offense1447% (88)36% (119)13.126.3187.37.114.317 (86)11 (88).18 (106)1.7 (27)32% (84)28% (91).21 (103)6% (81)1.9 (104)
UMASS Defense1243% (12)48% (129) - - - - - - 4 (75).41 (128)1.6 (103)26% (134)33% (105).42 (120)3% (136)2 (76)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
M-OH Defense1449% (79)40% (52) - - - - - - 14 (12).19 (43)1.5 (27)34% (30)28% (43).22 (40)7% (22)2 (57)
UMASS Offense1254% (26)34% (129)18.634.6165.14.88.98 (134)9 (88).02 (132)1.3 (135)38% (135)25% (119).14 (126)7% (110)2 (70)

Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: 0.67  #67
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 14.71  #79
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 14.04  #58
2026 Talent Rating: 647.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 250%  #67
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #84
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #114
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): 0.67   Massachusetts: -29.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami (OH): -3.4   Massachusetts: -36.6




Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -29.68  #138
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 1.09  #138
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 29.09  #138
2026 Talent Rating: 354.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 250  #67
Massachusetts's 2026 Expected Record: 1.3 - 10.7
Massachusetts's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -36.6  #136
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 7.8  #136
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 42.8  #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.2

Miami (OH)'s 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 37
Massachusetts 9

Projected Total Points: 46
Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 12.8
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Massachusetts's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Miami (OH)23Massachusetts20Miami (OH) -15.5Massachusetts44.5Under
202309/09Massachusetts28Miami (OH)41Miami (OH) -7Miami (OH)45.0Over
201511/21Massachusetts13Miami (OH)20UMass -9Miami (OH)54.5Under
201410/04Miami (OH)42Massachusetts41Miami (OH) -4.5Massachusetts0
201310/12Massachusetts17Miami (OH)10UMass -2.5Massachusetts0
201209/22Miami (OH)27Massachusetts16
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Massachusetts131 Overs
Miami (OH)522 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 21 - 41 - 30 - 1
Road Teams2 - 44 - 11 - 03 - 1

(#67) M-OH at (#138) UMASS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatM-OHUMASS
Game ControlGC #83 #136
Momentum ControlMC #70 #124
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #67 #138
SP+SP+ #84 #136
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #71 #130
Blue ChipsBC% #67 #67
Massachusetts Notes
(2/27) Vibes: Why bother. School deserves better
(2/27) 8 wins in 7 years (8-68), should not be FBS
(2/27) QB Watson (VT) vs Johnson (FAMU)... meh
(2/27) RB a stable of longshots with 2 portal adds
(2/27) WR could have upside w King (FCS), Matthews
(2/27) OL 6 w starting exp, 2 from FCS. Better than exp
(2/27) DL severely lacks size, talent. Have bros from IU?
(2/27) LB best unit on team, by far. 3 good starters
(2/27) DBs will be bad, likely really bad.
Massachusetts Injury Report
Miami (OH) on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffUMASS Def
Game ControlGC #92 #136
Momentum ControlMC #58 #117
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #106 #130
ExplosiveExp #83 #24
PPAPPA #107 #133
PowerPwr #79 #138
SP+SP+ #114 #136
Pts POPPO #107 #134
HavocHav #34 #136
Miami (OH) Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffUMASS Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #82 #129
Run ExplRExp #113 #14
PPAExp #93 #121
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #33 #136
Stuff RateStuff #47 #136
TackleTak - NR
Miami (OH) Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #129
Pass ExplPExl #27 #103
PPAExp #106 #128
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #14 #136
DB HavocDB #81 #136
Massachusetts on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUMASS OffM-OH Def
Game ControlGC #136 #73
Momentum ControlMC #135 #78
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #134 #36
ExplosiveExp #78 #33
PPAPPA #135 #29
PowerPwr #138 #58
SP+SP+ #136 #54
Pts POPPO #136 #45
HavocHav #131 #25
Massachusetts Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffM-OH Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #136 #35
Run ExplRExp #12 #48
PPAExp #129 #40
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #136 #34
Stuff RateStuff #136 #45
TackleTak - NR
Massachusetts Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatUMASS OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #129 #52
Pass ExplPExl #135 #27
PPAExp #132 #43
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #127 #34
DB HavocDB #110 #22
Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Massachusetts in 2024 (23-20)
Miami (OH) beat Massachusetts in 2023 (41-28)

  
M-OH's OC Gus Ragland (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Gotkowski388644%575416.7
Lynel Billups-Williams010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Nelson (Tr)2941805186.175
D'Shawntae Jones6327774.446
Keith Reynolds2718606.932
Cade Yacamelli (Tr)3812803.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Maleek Huggins56808714.485
Keith Reynolds3635219.869
Rodney Nelson (Tr)3022917.649
Christian Ross1817419.737

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Young898323
Blayne Myrick (Tr)846033
Malcolm Mccain667220
Mychal Yharbrough442004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bai Jobe154440
CJ Young898323
James Schott143321
Malcolm Mccain667220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Martin310007
Mychal Yharbrough442004
CJ Young898323

UMASS's OC Max Warner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
RJ Johnson III (Tr)17626566%21861648.2
William Watson III (Tr)2450%770019.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Washington (Tr)8634034.024
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)3519725.637
RJ Johnson III (Tr)5713932.426
Elijah Faulkner4011402.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randall King (Tr)59689511.777
Devin Matthews (Tr)36649718.059
Jordan Washington (Tr)2220219.260
Max Dowling20199310.077

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Zeraun Daniel753002
Timmy Hinspeter694222
Kendall Bournes582000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Timmy Hinspeter694222
William Depaepe (Tr)21100
Tyler Martin973002
Kezion Dia-Johnson30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon (Tr)242005
Tyler Martin973002
Timmy Hinspeter694222