Ball State at Liberty - 2026 Matchup Preview

Ball State Cardinals at Liberty Flames

Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Williams Stadium - Lynchburg, VA

Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.6 - 9.4 (#111)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)

Our Line: Liberty -21.5 (SP+ LIB -19)
Projected Score: BALL: 15 - LIB: 36 (51)
LIB Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
BALL Travel: 390 miles

Flames (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (25 - 13)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (32 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0.9 - 0.1 (#122)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
BALL Players
LIB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ball State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Ball State at Ohio State	+39	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Ball State vs Stony Brook	-0	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Ball State at Liberty	+21.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Ball State at Kent State	+7.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Ball State vs Toledo	+15	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Ball State at Northwestern	+28	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Ball State at Bowling Green	+14.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Ball State vs Sacramento State	+3.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4	Ball State at Massachusetts	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Ball State vs Buffalo	+9.5	—	—	—	—
Tue 11/17	Ball State at Ohio	+14	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+12.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Liberty's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19	Liberty vs Ball State	-21.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL	#134 (-)	33% (136)	15.8	34% (133)	2.52 (130)	134	31% (133)	138	2.71 (132)	#79 (.18)	44% (106)	29.8	47% (112)	44% (97)	3.57 (59)	38.8	1.3	1.1
LIB	#75 (.17)	44% (49)	25.6	47% (39)	2.91 (72)	193	40% (87)	196	3.68 (71)	#100 (.21)	42% (71)	26.5	45% (95)	39% (39)	3.55 (57)	55.6	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Offense	12	15.8	9.7	32.7%	2.71	1.3	15	272	134	138	3.5	55%	42%	34%	31%	21%	-
LIB Defense	12	26.5	27.3	41.7%	3.55	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	44%	45%	39%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
BALL Defense	12	29.8	35.7	44.5%	3.57	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	47%	44%	14%	.18
LIB Offense	12	25.6	31.5	43.9%	3.68	1.8	20	389	193	196	4.6	58%	40%	47%	40%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ball State	12	29:44	14.7	34%	53%	4.7	38.8	1.3	1.1	4.6	1.8	1	27.7
Liberty	12	30:39	20.3	40%	52%	6.2	55.6	1.8	1.2	4.1	1.3	1	29.1

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Offense	12	55% (28)	34% (133)	37.8	133.7	3.5	11 (88)	.03 (111)	2.52 (130)	58% (133)	16% (136)	1.09 (23)
LIB Defense	12	54% (113)	45% (95)	-	-	-	-	.19 (118)	3.18 (115)	72% (76)	8% (123)	1.01 (96)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
BALL Defense	12	52% (99)	47% (112)	-	-	-	-	.16 (98)	2.97 (83)	63% (17)	9% (99)	1.03 (100)
LIB Offense	12	58% (14)	47% (39)	41.7	193	4.6	25 (99)	.18 (37)	2.91 (72)	73% (60)	9% (53)	0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Offense	12	42% (112)	31% (133)	13	23.1	138	6	10.6	11 (114)	8 (20)	-.03 (136)	1.6 (64)	36% (132)	22% (133)	.06 (130)	5% (42)	1.9 (89)
LIB Defense	12	44% (22)	39% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (55)	.25 (68)	1.6 (106)	31% (80)	32% (100)	.5 (133)	6% (75)	2.3 (134)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
BALL Defense	12	46% (39)	44% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.3 (93)	1.6 (72)	30% (101)	32% (101)	.33 (89)	5% (90)	2 (64)
LIB Offense	12	40% (123)	40% (87)	14.5	26.3	195.5	7.4	13.5	11 (114)	13 (88)	.21 (87)	1.5 (69)	29% (25)	31% (67)	.27 (82)	7% (105)	2 (83)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -21.66 #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: 5.92 #132
Ball State's Defense Rating: 27.58 #136
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #104
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.6 - 9.4
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.2 #134
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.2 #136
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #128

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -21.66 Liberty: -2.14

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -25.2 Liberty: -6.4

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: -2.14 #87
Liberty's Offense Rating: 15.07 #76
Liberty's Defense Rating: 17.95 #98
2026 Talent Rating: 612.00 #80
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #104
Liberty's 2026 Expected Record: 0.9 - 0.1
Liberty's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.4 #92
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #66
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #103

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 435.82
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Liberty 36
Ball State 15

Projected Total Points: 51

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Liberty's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2010	09/11	Ball State	23	Liberty	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Liberty	1	0	0 Overs
Ball State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#137) BALL at (#87) LIB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	BALL	LIB
Game ControlGC	#135	#56
Momentum ControlMC	#74	#24
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#137	#87
SP+SP+	#134	#92
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#109	#80
Blue ChipsBC%	#104	#104

Ball State Notes(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report

Liberty Notes(3/3) 12 of 25 portals are from P4. Best class in CUSA
(2/2) Chadwell era has gone bad. Staff says 'chaos'?
Liberty Injury Report

Ball State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	LIB Def
Game ControlGC	#135	#76
Momentum ControlMC	#127	#34
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#136	#71
ExplosiveExp	#38	#97
PPAPPA	#134	#100
PowerPwr	#132	#98
SP+SP+	#136	#103
Pts POPPO	#132	#57
HavocHav	#135	#116

Ball State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#133	#95
Run ExplRExp	#23	#96
PPAExp	#111	#118
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	#115
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#89
TackleTak	-	NR

Ball State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#133	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#64	#106
PPAExp	#136	#68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#136	#123
DB HavocDB	#42	#75

Liberty on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	BALL Def
Game ControlGC	#48	#133
Momentum ControlMC	#30	#38
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#49	#106
ExplosiveExp	#101	#70
PPAPPA	#75	#79
PowerPwr	#76	#136
SP+SP+	#66	#128
Pts POPPO	#71	#59
HavocHav	#76	#105

Liberty Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#112
Run ExplRExp	#61	#100
PPAExp	#37	#98
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#72	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#41
TackleTak	-	NR

Liberty Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LIB Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#87	#97
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#72
PPAExp	#87	#93
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#53	#99
DB HavocDB	#105	#90

Program Comparison
LIB 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Williams Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)	1	3	33%	14	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Horton	60	180	0	3.0	13
Jalen Bonds	27	77	1	2.9	15
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)	19	75	0	3.9	9
Elijah Jackson	8	17	0	2.1	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)	22	393	3	17.9	75
Donovan Hamilton	20	244	0	12.2	47
Jabari Smith	15	166	3	11.1	37
TJ Horton	15	71	1	4.7	19

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Willizhuan Yates	32	0	0	6
Tobi Adewoyin	14	0	0	0
Ameir Glenn	13	3	1	0
Deondre Shepherd	13	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)	4	2	1	2	1
Ameir Glenn	13	3	1	0	0
Jared Badie (Tr)	8	2	1	4	0
Ben Marsh	7	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Willizhuan Yates	32	0	0	0	6
Maverick Gracio (Tr)	4	2	1	2	1
Ameir Glenn	13	3	1	0	0

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ethan Vasko	151	266	57%	1961	10	12	7.4
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)	41	82	50%	618	6	3	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Terron Kellman (Tr)	65	331	4	5.1	33
Justin Marshall (Tr)	49	260	1	5.3	73
Ethan Vasko	100	258	5	2.6	24
Kanye Udoh (Tr)	56	240	2	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rashawn Cunningham	34	628	7	18.5	73
Jamari Person	28	315	0	11.3	20
Jaylon Coleman	10	100	0	10.0	31
Caleb Ryan	4	87	0	21.8	56

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Derrell Farrar	71	4	1	2	2
D-Icey Hopkins (Tr)	51	3	1	0	5
Nathan Pirolli	42	2	1	1	1
Ashton Whitner (Tr)	38	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brenton Williams	27	4	3	3	0
Derrell Farrar	71	4	1	2	2
D-Icey Hopkins (Tr)	51	3	1	0	5
Joe Strickland	5	1	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
D-Icey Hopkins (Tr)	51	3	1	0	5
Derrell Farrar	71	4	1	2	2
Mike Jarvis	25	3	0	2	1