North Carolina at TCU - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo

North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned Frogs

TCU logo
Saturday, August 29th 2026 (12:00 AM EDT)
TCU -7.5 (50.5) (-290)  Open: -7.5 | 50.5
Aviva Stadium - Dublin, Ireland

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#100)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 7) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: TCU -6  (SP+ TCU -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 22 - TCU: 28 (50)
TCU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 3605 miles, 4 hrs behind
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 4.5 (#47)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29North Carolina vs TCU+7.550.5
Sat 9/12North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-25.5
Sat 9/19North Carolina at Clemson+11
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3North Carolina vs Notre Dame+22.5
Sat 10/10North Carolina at Pittsburgh+8.5
Sat 10/17North Carolina at Duke+5
Sat 10/24North Carolina vs Syracuse-6
Sat 10/31North Carolina vs Miami+18
Sat 11/7North Carolina at UConn-7
Sat 11/14North Carolina vs Louisville+6.5
Sat 11/21North Carolina at Virginia+7.5
Sat 11/28North Carolina vs NC State+1.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 7, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
TCU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29TCU vs North Carolina-7.550.5
Sat 9/12TCU vs Grambling-29.5
Sat 9/19TCU vs Arkansas State-23.5
Sat 9/26TCU at UCF-2
Sat 10/3TCU vs BYU+4.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17TCU at Baylor-1.5
Sat 10/24TCU vs West Virginia-9.5
Sat 10/31TCU vs Kansas-8.5
Sat 11/7TCU at Arizona+4.5
Sat 11/14TCU vs Kansas State-2
Sat 11/21TCU vs Utah-0.5
Sat 11/28TCU at Texas Tech+20

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
TCU#36 (.21)44% (48)30.743% (79)2.7 (113)13247% (24)2904.14 (34)#59 (.15)40% (53)25.338% (23)43% (86)3.49 (54)621.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
TCU Defense1325.324.240.3%3.491.6 - - - - - 48%50%38%43%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
TCU Offense1330.73644.3%4.141.522422132290445%53%43%47%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
TCU1328:5122.247%64%6.8621.51.65.21.8130
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
TCU Defense1348% (51)38% (23) - - - - .06 (44)2.84 (58)68% (48)9% (84)0.88 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
TCU Offense1345% (104)43% (79)33.3131.8420 (60).04 (109)2.7 (113)77% (35)9% (71)0.83 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)
TCU Defense1350% (85)43% (86) - - - - - - 14 (22).3 (92)1.7 (111)32% (66)32% (94).35 (96)6% (75)2.1 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
TCU Offense1353% (34)47% (24)23.535.4290.18.212.330 (3)15 (108).41 (20)1.6 (35)33% (89)34% (23).45 (20)6% (72)2.1 (26)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -0.18  #71
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.78  #65
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 15.96  #73
2026 Talent Rating: 942.00  #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 16%  #27
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 3.7 - 8.3
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.8  #53
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5  #78
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 848.71
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -0.18   TCU: 7.83

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 3.8   TCU: 9.1




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 7.83  #35
TCU's Offense Rating: 17.90  #43
TCU's Defense Rating: 11.34  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 849.00  #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15  #31
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 4.5
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.1  #34
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.9  #40

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 766.38
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 28
North Carolina 22


Projected Total Points: 50
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/01North Carolina14TCU48TCU -3TCU59.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU111 Overs
North Carolina000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#71) UNC at (#35) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCTCU
Game ControlGC #116 #17
Momentum ControlMC #81 #29
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #71 #35
SP+SP+ #53 #34
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #18 #34
Blue ChipsBC% #27 #31
North Carolina Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Low, '25 was a disaster. Can they improve?
(2/7) GM Lombardi has been a disaster. Will sink ship
(2/7) New OC Petrino is great, can he work miracles?
(2/6) LBs counting on portals, esp two from Richmond
(2/6) CBs Cost & Patterson decent duo, S has lots of ?
(2/6) Don't believe in this staff nor this roster
(2/6) QB a big ? Edwards (Wisc), O'Neil (TAMU)?
(2/6) RB is June ready to be RB1? Count on depth?
(2/6) WR Shipp good, can #2 & depth emerge?
(2/6) OL has a lot of ? There's some talent, but lack exp
(2/6) DL has a pair of decent DT's and one proven DE
North Carolina Injury Report
TCU Notes
(3/17) Vibes: Shaky, fans souring on Dykes? Tough.
(3/17) WR has parts w #2 Dwyer back & depth options
(3/17) OL has parts, 4 FT, 2 PT guys w starting exp
(3/17) DTs are OK, DE's look average. Pass Rush ?
(3/17) LBs lack in exp & real options, need depth to hit
(3/17) DBs took 3 portals to help bad Pass Def. Good exp
(2/12) New OC Sammis was really good @ UConn
(2/3) QB Craig (Harvard) 24 starts bypassed NFL draft
(2/3) RB Payne good find LY, depth looks thin and ?
TCU Injury Report
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffTCU Def
Game ControlGC #113 #27
Momentum ControlMC #120 #33
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #53
ExplosiveExp #121 #92
PPAPPA #119 #59
PowerPwr #65 #32
SP+SP+ #78 #40
Pts POPPO #108 #54
HavocHav #94 #86
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffTCU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #23
Run ExplRExp #127 #26
PPAExp #130 #44
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #58
Stuff RateStuff #67 #95
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffTCU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #86
Pass ExplPExl #103 #111
PPAExp #92 #92
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #84
DB HavocDB #55 #75
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffUNC Def
Game ControlGC #14 #115
Momentum ControlMC #36 #63
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #48 #60
ExplosiveExp #46 #62
PPAPPA #36 #78
PowerPwr #43 #73
SP+SP+ #30 #34
Pts POPPO #34 #61
HavocHav #64 #91
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #64
Run ExplRExp #121 #88
PPAExp #109 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #113 #37
Stuff RateStuff #114 #99
TackleTak - NR
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #50
Pass ExplPExl #35 #17
PPAExp #20 #51
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #71 #70
DB HavocDB #72 #90
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aviva Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
TCU beat North Carolina last year (48-14)

  
UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Taron Dickens (Tr)27136574%35083829.6
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Taron Dickens (Tr)9732113.328
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Mason Humphrey (Tr)35651418.677
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaiden Patterson332005
Kaleb Cost452005
Coleman Bryson160002

TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)20433162%28292578.5
John Hoyet Chance010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Jon Denman5017833.616
Jaden Craig (Tr)487831.626
Major Everhart5701.411
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer54730713.569
Jeremy Scott (Tr)24417417.474
Jeremy Payne2220729.444
Ed Small16186211.641

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson963003
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014
Vernon Glover411006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kylin Jackson265321
Koron Hayward (Tr)194321
Paul Oyewale318220
Ansel Din-Mbuh247220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover411006
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014