Sat, Sep 12 2026
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Mackay Stadium
Reno, NV
·
Turf
·
26,000 cap
Montana State✈ 613 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Nevada wins
Strong
Montana State 2026 Schedule
Montana State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/12 | Montana State at Nevada | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
Nevada 2026 Schedule
Nevada's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Nevada vs Western Kentucky | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Nevada vs Montana State | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Nevada at Middle Tennessee | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Nevada vs Air Force | +10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Nevada at UTEP | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Nevada at North Dakota State | +19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Nevada vs San José State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Nevada at UCLA | +25 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Nevada vs New Mexico | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Nevada at Northern Illinois | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Nevada vs Hawai'i | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Nevada at UNLV | +22 | — | — | — | — |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Montana State Edge
Montana State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nevada Edge
Nevada +26.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓