Sat, Nov 21 2026
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Rentschler Field
East Hartford, CT
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Old Dominion✈ 389 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Old Dominion
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Old Dominion entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Old Dominion wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Old Dominion wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Old Dominion
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Old Dominion 2026 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/12 | Old Dominion at Virginia Tech | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Old Dominion vs East Carolina | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/21 | Old Dominion at UConn | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
UConn 2026 Schedule
UConn's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | UConn vs Lafayette | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | UConn vs Maryland | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | UConn at Southern Miss | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | UConn at Miami (OH) | +0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | UConn vs Syracuse | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | UConn at Temple | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/24 | UConn vs Massachusetts | -31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | UConn at Air Force | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | UConn vs North Carolina | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | UConn vs James Madison | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | UConn vs Old Dominion | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | UConn at Wyoming | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Old Dominion
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Old Dominion
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +0.58
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Old Dominion Edge
Old Dominion +3.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Old Dominion
Ricky Rahne #53
30–33 (48%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Kody Cook
Yr 1
#67
DC
Blake Seiler
Yr 3
#21
UConn
Jason Candle #45
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Marquel Blackwell
Yr 1
#67
DC
Ryan Manalac
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓