Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, WV
·
Turf
·
60,000 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 962 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
West Virginia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
West Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → West Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2026 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Oklahoma State at Tulsa | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Oklahoma State vs Oregon | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Oklahoma State vs Murray State | -28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Oklahoma State at West Virginia | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Oklahoma State vs UCF | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Oklahoma State at Houston | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Oklahoma State vs Colorado | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Oklahoma State at Iowa State | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech | +17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Oklahoma State at Arizona State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Oklahoma State vs Kansas | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
West Virginia 2026 Schedule
West Virginia's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | West Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | West Virginia vs UT Martin | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | West Virginia vs Virginia | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | West Virginia vs Oklahoma State | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | West Virginia at Iowa State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | West Virginia vs Arizona | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | West Virginia vs Cincinnati | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | West Virginia at TCU | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | West Virginia at Texas Tech | +27 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | West Virginia vs Kansas | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | West Virginia vs Houston | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | West Virginia at Utah | +11 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +6.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Eric Morris #56
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Sean Brophy
Yr 1
#67
DC
Skyler Cassity
Yr 1
#41
West Virginia
Rich Rodriguez #72
64–34 (65%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 2
#28
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 2
#26
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓