Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas,
while Game Control favors Tennessee.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas 2026 Schedule
Texas's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Texas vs Texas State | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Texas vs Ohio State | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Texas vs UTSA | -27 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Texas at Tennessee | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Texas at Oklahoma | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Texas vs Florida | -22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Texas vs Ole Miss | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Texas vs Mississippi State | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Texas at Missouri | -11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Texas at LSU | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Texas vs Arkansas | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Texas at Texas A&M | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
Tennessee 2026 Schedule
Tennessee's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Tennessee vs Furman | -32 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Tennessee at Georgia Tech | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Tennessee vs Kennesaw State | -22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Tennessee vs Texas | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Tennessee vs Auburn | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Tennessee at Arkansas | -11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Tennessee vs Alabama | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Tennessee at South Carolina | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Tennessee at Texas A&M | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Tennessee vs LSU | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +0.04
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee Edge
Tennessee +12.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #7
46–20 (69%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 3
#5
DC
Will Muschamp
Yr 1
#45
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #9
45–20 (69%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Joey Halzle
Yr 3
#4
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 1
#7
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓