Matchup Prediction
Wisconsin
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wisconsin entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Wisconsin wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Wisconsin wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -5.5
O/U 54.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wisconsin
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wisconsin 2023 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Wisconsin vs Buffalo | -29.0W38–17 | 52.5 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Wisconsin at Washington State | -5.0L22–31 | 58.0 | L22–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Wisconsin vs Georgia Southern | -20.5W35–14 | 65.5 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/22 | Wisconsin at Purdue | -5.5W38–17 | 54.0 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Wisconsin vs Rutgers | -12.5W24–13 | 44.0 | W24–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Wisconsin vs Iowa | -8.0L6–15 | 33.5 | L6–15 | U | N |
| Sat 10/21 | Wisconsin at Illinois | -3.0W25–21 | 40.5 | W25–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Wisconsin vs Ohio State | +14.5L10–24 | 48.0 | L10–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Wisconsin at Indiana | -9.5L14–20 | 45.0 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Wisconsin vs Northwestern | -9.5L10–24 | 43.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Wisconsin vs Nebraska | -7.5W24–17 | 36.5 | W24–17 | O | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Wisconsin at Minnesota | -1.5W28–14 | 42.0 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/1 | Wisconsin vs LSU | +9.5L31–35 | 59.5 | L31–35 | O | Y |
Purdue 2023 Schedule
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Purdue vs Fresno State | -4.0L35–39 | 47.0 | L35–39 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Purdue at Virginia Tech | +1.5W24–17 | 49.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Purdue vs Syracuse | +1.0L20–35 | 56.5 | L20–35 | U | N |
| Fri 9/22 | Purdue vs Wisconsin | +5.5L17–38 | 54.0 | L17–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Purdue vs Illinois | -1.0W44–19 | 54.0 | W44–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Purdue at Iowa | +2.5L14–20 | 38.5 | L14–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Purdue vs Ohio State | +17.5L7–41 | 53.0 | L7–41 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/28 | Purdue at Nebraska | -1.0L14–31 | 39.5 | L14–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Purdue at Michigan | +32.5L13–41 | 52.5 | L13–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Purdue vs Minnesota | +1.5W49–30 | 48.5 | W49–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Purdue at Northwestern | +2.5L15–23 | 47.5 | L15–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Purdue vs Indiana | -2.5W35–31 | 55.5 | W35–31 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wisconsin
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +1.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wisconsin, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Phil Longo
Yr 1
#1
DC
Colin Hitschler
Yr 1
#1
Purdue
Ryan Walters #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Graham Harrell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Kane
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓